--- title: "Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 1/2 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-half-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Is a call right with 1 out on the flop against a half-pot bet? Chance 4.26%, price 25.00%, so fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 1/2 pot, Flop Is a call right with 1 out on the flop against a half-pot bet? Chance 4.26%, price 25.00%, so fold. A half-pot bet on the flop is too expensive to call with 1 out. You hit 4.26% of the time by the river and the call needs 25.00%. - Verdict: Fold (1 out, flop, half-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 4.26% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 25.00% ($50 into a pot of $200) - Margin over the price: -20.74 points (your chance minus the price) ## The price of the call 4.26% against 25.00%: the draw trails the price by 20.74 points. On this flop against a half-pot bet, that is an easy fold. Holding a single out means one card in the deck helps you. Out of 47 unseen cards it arrives 2.13% of the time on one card. ## The arithmetic of this call - Starting pot: $100 - Bet: $50 - Cost to call: $50 - Pot after your call: $200 - What a hit wins: $150 - Net loss when you miss: $50 - How often you hit: 4.26% - Calling is worth, on average: -$41.49 - Break-even equity: 25.00% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -20.7447 points - Fractional outs at the price: 6.23 outs - Margin measured in outs: -5.23 outs Assume the whole pot goes to you when you hit, the call is lost when you miss, and nothing more is bet. Calling then loses $41.49 on average: $6.38 from hits, minus $47.87 from misses, -0.830 per dollar called. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 22.5 : 1, and the pot lays 3 : 1 on a call. One easy error is to use 33.33%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 25.00%, and the mistaken margin would be -29.0780 points. The bet over the starting pot, 50.00%, would claim -45.7447 points. ## Closing the gap with future bets The call becomes fair only if a hit brings in $975 more after the draw arrives. Measured against the $50 you pay, that is 19.50 times your call. Price of a half-pot call with future winnings added, 1 out on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 25.00% | -20.74 points | -$41.49 | Fold | | $50 | 20.00% | -15.74 points | -$39.36 | Fold | | $100 | 16.67% | -12.41 points | -$37.23 | Fold | | $250 | 11.11% | -6.86 points | -$30.85 | Fold | | $500 | 7.14% | -2.89 points | -$20.21 | Fold | Another way to close the gap is more outs. The fewest outs that call a half-pot bet on the flop is 7; with 7 outs you would hit 27.84%. That is 6 more outs than the 1 you hold. ## One card or two 1 out against a half-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 4.26% | -20.7447 points | -$41.49 | Fold | | Next card only | 2.13% | -22.8723 points | -$45.74 | Fold | One card or two, the call comes out the same way. 2.13% on the next card and 4.26% by the river both sit on the fold side of 25.00%. ## Draws around this one How fast does the margin move? About 4.16 points per out on the flop. The rows below keep the half-pot bet fixed and change only the outs. Outs 1 to 5 on the flop against a half-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 out, this page | 4.26% | -20.74 points | Fold | | [2 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 8.42% | -16.58 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 12.49% | -12.51 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 16.47% | -8.53 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 20.35% | -4.65 points | Fold | ## Bigger and smaller bets One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 1 out on the flop. 1 out on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -12.41 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -15.74 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -17.97 points | Fold | | half-pot, this page | 25.00% | -20.74 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -24.32 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -25.74 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -29.08 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -31.46 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -33.24 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -35.74 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -38.60 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -40.19 points | Fold | With 4.26% to hit, you can call a bet up to 0.05 times the pot ($4.65 on a $100 pot) and no more, which is smaller than every size listed. All 12 rows are folds. ## Keep exploring - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a half-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/half-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 1 out on the flop against a bet of half the pot? Math says fold. The half-pot bet of $50 needs 25.00% equity, 1 out on the flop gives 4.26%, and the margin is -20.74 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth -$41.49 on average. ### What is the fewest outs that can call a half-pot bet on the flop? 7 outs is the line. At 7 the chance is 27.84%, enough for 25.00%; one fewer gives 24.14%, which is not. Your 1 out sits 6 below it on the flop, at 4.26%. ### Is the by-the-river chance the right one to use on the flop? Use the by-the-river chance, 4.26%, when no more betting follows, and the next-card chance, 2.13%, when you must pay again on the turn. Against the 25.00% price both give a fold, so the choice does not change the play here. ## How this is computed Here is how 4.26% was found. Deal every pair of the 47 unseen cards: 1,035 of 1,081 pairs contain no out. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $50 of a $200 pot (25.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a half-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/half-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)