--- title: "Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 1 out on the flop gives 4.26%, a margin of -15.74 points and a fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 1/3 pot, Flop A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 1 out on the flop gives 4.26%, a margin of -15.74 points and a fold. Your draw is priced too high to call here: 4.26% to hit, 20.00% needed against a third-pot bet on the flop. - Verdict: Fold (1 out, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 4.26% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: -15.74 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict The price is 20.00% and your chance is 4.26%. You sit 15.74 points below the line, which is a wide gap, so you fold. With one out, exactly one of the 47 unseen cards improves your hand, and one card hits 2.13% of the time. ## Worked through on a $100 pot - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - The bet: $33.33 - Chips you put in: $33.33 - Pot after your call: $166.67 - Net gain when you hit: $133.33 - Loss on a miss: $33.33 - How often you hit: 4.26% - Expected value of calling: -$26.24 - Equity needed to break even: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: -15.7447 points - Fractional outs at the price: 4.91 outs - Margin measured in outs: -3.91 outs Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling loses $26.24 on average. The hit side averages $5.67, the miss side $31.91, and each dollar called returns -0.787. As odds, 22.5 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 4 : 1. The price is 20.00% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 25.00%, a margin of -20.7447 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 33.33% puts the margin at -29.0780 points. ## What implied odds would have to do Think of it as a missing $616.67. When the draw hits you must collect that much beyond the pot for the $33.33 call to pay for itself, 18.50 times your call. Price of a third-pot call with future winnings added, 1 out on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | -15.74 points | -$26.24 | Fold | | $50 | 15.38% | -11.13 points | -$24.11 | Fold | | $100 | 12.50% | -8.24 points | -$21.99 | Fold | | $250 | 8.00% | -3.74 points | -$15.60 | Fold | | $500 | 5.00% | -0.74 points | -$4.96 | Fold | The smallest count that pays for a third-pot bet is 5 outs at 20.35%. You hold 1, which is 4 outs fewer. ## Which chance to use 1 out against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 4.26% | -15.7447 points | -$26.24 | Fold | | Next card only | 2.13% | -17.8723 points | -$29.79 | Fold | One card or two, the call comes out the same way. 2.13% on the next card and 4.26% by the river both sit on the fold side of 20.00%. ## Counts close to yours Here are the closest counts to 1 out, priced against the same 20.00%. One more out moves your chance by about 4.16 points. Outs 1 to 5 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 out, this page | 4.26% | -15.74 points | Fold | | [2 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 8.42% | -11.58 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 12.49% | -7.51 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 16.47% | -3.53 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.35% | +0.35 points | Call | ## How bet size moves the answer Bigger bets ask for more equity while your chance stays at 4.26%. Here is every bet size against the same draw, with the row for this page marked. 1 out on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -12.41 points | Fold | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | -15.74 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -17.97 points | Fold | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -20.74 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -24.32 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -25.74 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -29.08 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -31.46 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -33.24 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -35.74 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -38.60 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -40.19 points | Fold | 1 out stops paying at 0.05 times the pot ($4.65 on a $100 pot), below the smallest size listed. The call fails at all 12 bet sizes. ## Next pages to read - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Is a call correct with 1 out against a third-pot bet on the flop? By the numbers it is a fold. 1 out on the flop hits 4.26% by the river, a third-pot bet needs 20.00%, and the margin is -15.74 points. That assumes you call the full $33.33 and no more betting follows, and it values the call at -$26.24 per $100 pot. ### How strong must a draw be to call a third-pot bet on the flop? 5 outs is the line. At 5 the chance is 20.35%, enough for 20.00%; one fewer gives 16.47%, which is not. Your 1 out sits 4 below it on the flop, at 4.26%. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? Count two cards, 4.26%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 2.13%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 20.00%, either number leads to a fold. ## How this is computed The hit chance comes straight from combinations. Out of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, 1,035 miss every out, so you hit 4.26% of the time. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $33.33 of a $166.67 pot (20.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)