--- title: "Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Is a call right with 1 out on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet? Chance 4.26%, price 28.57%, so fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 2/3 pot, Flop Is a call right with 1 out on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet? Chance 4.26%, price 28.57%, so fold. On the flop, 1 out is not enough to call a two-thirds-pot bet. The price is 28.57% and the chance is 4.26%. - Verdict: Fold (1 out, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 4.26% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -24.32 points (your chance minus the price) ## Chance against price 4.26% against 28.57%: the draw trails the price by 24.32 points. On this flop against a two-thirds-pot bet, that is an easy fold. The deck holds 47 unseen cards and one of them is your out, so a single card hits 2.13% of the time. ## A $100 pot, step by step - Pot before the bet: $100 - The bet: $66.67 - Chips you put in: $66.67 - Pot with your call in: $233.33 - Net gain when you hit: $166.67 - Loss on a miss: $66.67 - How often you hit: 4.26% - Expected value of a call: -$56.74 - Break-even equity: 28.57% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -24.3161 points - Fractional outs at the price: 7.20 outs - Margin measured in outs: -6.20 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling loses $56.74 on average. Hits bring in $7.09, misses cost $63.83, and the ratio is -0.851 per dollar called. Stated as odds, you are 22.5 : 1 against hitting and the call gets 2.5 : 1 from the pot. Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 40.00%, when the real price is 28.57%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -35.7447 points; on 66.67%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -62.4113 points. ## Implied odds that would change the answer The shortfall in dollars is $1,333.33: the amount a hit would have to win later for 4.26% to be enough. It equals 20.00 times your $66.67 call. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 1 out on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -24.32 points | -$56.74 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -19.27 points | -$54.61 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | -15.74 points | -$52.48 | Fold | | $250 | 13.79% | -9.54 points | -$46.10 | Fold | | $500 | 9.09% | -4.84 points | -$35.46 | Fold | Another way to close the gap is more outs. The fewest outs that call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is 8; with 8 outs you would hit 31.45%. That is 7 more outs than the 1 you hold. ## Two cards to come, or just one 1 out against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 4.26% | -24.3161 points | -$56.74 | Fold | | Next card only | 2.13% | -26.4438 points | -$61.70 | Fold | Here the cards to come do not matter for the verdict. 2.13% on one card and 4.26% on two both say fold at a price of 28.57%. ## Neighbors of this draw How fast does the margin move? About 4.16 points per out on the flop. The rows below keep the two-thirds-pot bet fixed and change only the outs. Outs 1 to 5 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 out, this page | 4.26% | -24.32 points | Fold | | [2 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 8.42% | -20.15 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 12.49% | -16.08 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 16.47% | -12.11 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 20.35% | -8.22 points | Fold | ## Changing the bet, keeping the draw Your 4.26% chance is fixed, so the only thing that moves is the price. The 12 rows below price the call at every bet size on the flop. 1 out on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -12.41 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -15.74 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -17.97 points | Fold | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -20.74 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -24.32 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -25.74 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -29.08 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -31.46 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -33.24 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -35.74 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -38.60 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -40.19 points | Fold | No bet size in the table is a call. The smallest, quarter-pot, needs 16.67% against your 4.26%, and the largest bet this draw could call is only 0.05 times the pot ($4.65 on a $100 pot). ## Pages that use the same math - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 1 out on the flop against a bet of two thirds of the pot? Your chance, 4.26%, set against the 28.57% price gives -24.32 points and a fold. With a $100 pot, a $66.67 call and no more betting, the average value of the call is -$56.74. ### At what count of outs does a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop become a call? 8 outs is the line. At 8 the chance is 31.45%, enough for 28.57%; one fewer gives 27.84%, which is not. Your 1 out sits 7 below it on the flop, at 4.26%. ### One card or two: which number belongs next to the 28.57% price? Both figures are right for their own situation: 4.26% with no more betting, 2.13% when the turn brings a bet. Facing 28.57%, each one gives a fold. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 1,035 out of 1,081; hit chance: 4.26%. The model is deliberately simple: call everything, win everything on a hit, face no more bets, deal from 47 equally likely unseen cards, and ignore an opponent's holding. With the price at $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%, later streets and shared outs are what change the real answer. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)