--- title: "Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 1/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "2.17% chance against a 20.00% price: 1 out on the turn facing a third-pot bet is a fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 1/3 pot, Turn 2.17% chance against a 20.00% price: 1 out on the turn facing a third-pot bet is a fold. The numbers favor a fold. 1 out on the turn reaches 2.17%, and a third-pot bet asks for 20.00%. - Verdict: Fold (1 out, turn, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 2.17% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: -17.83 points (your chance minus the price) ## Chance against price 2.17% against 20.00%: the draw trails the price by 17.83 points. On this turn against a third-pot bet, that is an easy fold. No common draw is a single card, so read this as a one-card hope: 2.17% on the next card, with 46 cards unseen. ## The same spot in dollars - The pot before betting: $100 - The bet: $33.33 - Chips you put in: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - You can win on a hit: $133.33 - You lose on a miss: $33.33 - Probability of a hit: 2.17% - Expected value of a call: -$29.71 - Break-even equity: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: -17.8261 points - Break-even count of outs: 9.20 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: -8.20 outs Expected value says the same in dollars. Win the whole pot on a hit, lose your call on a miss, add no more betting, and the call loses $29.71 on average: $2.90 in, $32.61 out, -0.891 per dollar called. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 45 : 1, and the pot lays 4 : 1 on a call. One easy error is to use 25.00%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 20.00%, and the mistaken margin would be -22.8261 points. The bet over the starting pot, 33.33%, would claim -31.1594 points. ## What implied odds would have to do Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $1,366.67 more on later streets after hitting, which is 41.00 times the call you make. Price of a third-pot call with future winnings added, 1 out on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | -17.83 points | -$29.71 | Fold | | $50 | 15.38% | -13.21 points | -$28.62 | Fold | | $100 | 12.50% | -10.33 points | -$27.54 | Fold | | $250 | 8.00% | -5.83 points | -$24.28 | Fold | | $500 | 5.00% | -2.83 points | -$18.84 | Fold | The call starts to work at 10 outs, where the chance is 21.74%. Your 1 out falls 9 outs below that. ## The same draw on the flop 1 out against a third-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 4.26% | -15.7447 points | -$26.24 | Fold | | Turn, one card to come | 2.17% | -17.8261 points | -$29.71 | Fold | Compare the streets. With two cards left, 1 out hits 4.26% (a fold); with one card left they hit 2.17% (a fold). The difference is 2.08 points. ## Draws around this one Draws near yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 20.00%, and each out moves the chance about 2.17 points. Outs 1 to 5 on the turn against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 out, this page | 2.17% | -17.83 points | Fold | | 2 outs | 4.35% | -15.65 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 6.52% | -13.48 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 8.70% | -11.30 points | Fold | | 5 outs | 10.87% | -9.13 points | Fold | ## Other bet sizes for this draw The same 1 out on the turn meets a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked. 1 out on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -14.49 points | Fold | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | -17.83 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -20.05 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -22.83 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -26.40 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -27.83 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -31.16 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -33.54 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -35.33 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -37.83 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -40.68 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -42.27 points | Fold | Your draw can face a bet of up to 0.02 times the pot ($2.27 on a $100 pot) and still break even. That is under the quarter-pot bet, so none of the 12 sizes is a call. ## Where to look next - [1 out on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 1 out on the turn against a bet of a third of the pot? The verdict is fold. Your chance is 2.17% and the price is 20.00%, which leaves -17.83 points. On a $100 pot with a $33.33 bet, calling is worth -$29.71 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet. ### What is the fewest outs that can call a third-pot bet on the turn? The fewest outs that call a third-pot bet on the turn is 10. With 10 outs you hit 21.74%, which reaches the 20.00% price, while 9 outs hit only 19.57%. You have 1, so you are 9 below that count. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? They are one number here. With a single card to come, 2.17% is both the next-card chance and the by-the-river chance, and it gives a fold against 20.00%, a margin of -17.83 points. ## How this is computed No sampling is involved. On the turn there are 46 unseen cards and 1 out among them, which gives 1 / 46 = 2.17%. The model is deliberately simple: call everything, win everything on a hit, face no more bets, deal from 46 equally likely unseen cards, and ignore an opponent's holding. With the price at $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%, later streets and shared outs are what change the real answer. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [1 out on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)