--- title: "Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 2/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "A two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57% and 1 out on the turn gives 2.17%, a margin of -26.40 points and a fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 1 Out vs 2/3 pot, Turn A two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57% and 1 out on the turn gives 2.17%, a margin of -26.40 points and a fold. A two-thirds-pot bet on the turn is too expensive to call with 1 out. You hit 2.17% of the time by the river and the call needs 28.57%. - Verdict: Fold (1 out, turn, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 2.17% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -26.40 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict 2.17% against 28.57%: the draw trails the price by 26.40 points. On this turn against a two-thirds-pot bet, that is an easy fold. Holding a single out means one card in the deck helps you. Out of 46 unseen cards it arrives 2.17% of the time on one card. ## Putting dollars on the call - The pot before betting: $100 - Bet: $66.67 - Your call: $66.67 - Pot after your call: $233.33 - You can win on a hit: $166.67 - Net loss when you miss: $66.67 - Probability of a hit: 2.17% - Expected value of a call: -$61.59 - Price of the call: 28.57% - Margin, to four decimals: -26.3975 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 13.14 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: -12.14 outs With no more betting, the whole pot won on a hit and the call lost on a miss, the call loses $61.59 on average. The hit side averages $3.62, the miss side $65.22, and each dollar called returns -0.924. Written as odds, the pot lays 2.5 : 1 while the draw is 45 : 1 against. Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 40.00%, when the real price is 28.57%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -37.8261 points; on 66.67%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -64.4928 points. ## When later betting could rescue the call The shortfall in dollars is $2,833.33: the amount a hit would have to win later for 2.17% to be enough. It equals 42.50 times your $66.67 call. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 1 out on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -26.40 points | -$61.59 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -21.36 points | -$60.51 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | -17.83 points | -$59.42 | Fold | | $250 | 13.79% | -11.62 points | -$56.16 | Fold | | $500 | 9.09% | -6.92 points | -$50.72 | Fold | The smallest count that pays for a two-thirds-pot bet is 14 outs at 30.43%. You hold 1, which is 13 outs fewer. ## Flop and turn compared 1 out against a two-thirds-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 4.26% | -24.3161 points | -$56.74 | Fold | | Turn, one card to come | 2.17% | -26.3975 points | -$61.59 | Fold | On the turn only one card is left, so the chance by the river and the chance on the next card are the same 2.17%. Back on the flop, the same 1 out hits 4.26%, 2.08 points more, and that would have been a fold. ## Draws around this one One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts just above 1. Each out moves the chance roughly 2.17 points against the 28.57% price. Outs 1 to 5 on the turn against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 out, this page | 2.17% | -26.40 points | Fold | | 2 outs | 4.35% | -24.22 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 6.52% | -22.05 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 8.70% | -19.88 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 10.87% | -17.70 points | Fold | ## How bet size moves the answer Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 1 out on the turn and a bet of a different size. 1 out on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -14.49 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -17.83 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -20.05 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -22.83 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -26.40 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -27.83 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -31.16 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -33.54 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -35.33 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -37.83 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -40.68 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -42.27 points | Fold | With 2.17% to hit, you can call a bet up to 0.02 times the pot ($2.27 on a $100 pot) and no more, which is smaller than every size listed. All 12 rows are folds. ## Pages that use the same math - [1 out on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Is 1 out on the turn worth a call against a bet of two thirds of the pot? Math says fold. The two-thirds-pot bet of $66.67 needs 28.57% equity, 1 out on the turn gives 2.17%, and the margin is -26.40 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth -$61.59 on average. ### What is the minimum number of outs for a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn? The threshold is 14 outs. It gives 30.43%, clearing 28.57%, whereas 13 gives only 28.26%. Holding 1 puts you 13 below it, with a chance of 2.17%. ### How many cards should you count when a two-thirds-pot bet arrives on the turn? They are one number here. With a single card to come, 2.17% is both the next-card chance and the by-the-river chance, and it gives a fold against 28.57%, a margin of -26.40 points. ## How this is computed No sampling is involved. On the turn there are 46 unseen cards and 1 out among them, which gives 1 / 46 = 2.17%. What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 46 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [1 out on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)