--- title: "Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs full pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Call or fold with 10 outs on the flop against a pot-size bet: 38.39% to hit, 33.33% needed, call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs full pot, Flop Call or fold with 10 outs on the flop against a pot-size bet: 38.39% to hit, 33.33% needed, call. Your draw is priced fairly enough to call here: 38.39% to hit, 33.33% needed against a pot-size bet on the flop. - Verdict: Call (10 outs, flop, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 38.39% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: +5.06 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict The odds you are given are better than the odds you need: 33.33% needed, 38.39% held, 5.06 points to spare. A count of 10 outs is usually the sum of more than one draw. Out of 47 unseen cards, one card helps 21.28% of the time. ## One hand, in dollars - Pot before the bet: $100 - Bet: $100 - You call: $100 - Pot after your call: $300 - Net gain when you hit: $200 - Loss on a miss: $100 - How often you hit: 38.39% - Average value of the call: +$15.17 - Price of the call: 33.33% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: +5.0570 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 8.53 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +1.47 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling gains $15.17 on average. Hits bring in $76.78, misses cost $61.61, and the ratio is +0.152 per dollar called. As odds, 1.6 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 2 : 1. One easy error is to use 50.00%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 33.33%, and the mistaken margin would be -11.6096 points. ## How safe the call is The fewest outs that still call a pot-size bet on the flop is 9. You hold 10, so you have 1 out to spare before the call flips to a fold. Price of a pot-size call if you give money back after a hit, 10 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | +5.06 points | +$15.17 | Call | | $10 | 34.48% | +3.91 points | +$11.33 | Call | | $25 | 36.36% | +2.03 points | +$5.57 | Call | | $50 | 40.00% | -1.61 points | -$4.02 | Fold | | $100 | 50.00% | -11.61 points | -$23.22 | Fold | If hitting means paying off a bigger hand later, the call survives a loss of $39.52. That is 0.40 times the $100 call. ## One card or two 10 outs against a pot-size bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 38.39% | +5.0570 points | +$15.17 | Call | | Next card only | 21.28% | -12.0567 points | -$36.17 | Fold | Here the cards to come matter. Two cards reach 38.39% and point to a call; one card reaches 21.28% and points to a fold. Which one applies depends on whether the turn brings another bet. ## Draws around this one How fast does the margin move? About 3.33 points per out on the flop. The rows below keep the pot-size bet fixed and change only the outs. Outs 8 to 12 on the flop against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [8 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 31.45% | -1.88 points | Fold | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 34.97% | +1.63 points | Call | | 10 outs, this page | 38.39% | +5.06 points | Call | | [11 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 41.72% | +8.39 points | Call | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 44.96% | +11.63 points | Call | ## Bigger and smaller bets Bet size sets the price, so the verdict changes as you scan the table. The pot-size bet of this page is marked in the first column. 10 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +21.72 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +18.39 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +16.17 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +13.39 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +9.82 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +8.39 points | Call | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | +5.06 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +2.68 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +0.89 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -1.61 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -4.47 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -6.05 points | Fold | 10 outs stop paying at 1.65 times the pot ($165.34 on a $100 pot). The call holds up against 9 of the 12 bet sizes. ## Where to look next - [10 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Does the math favor calling a pot-size bet with 10 outs on the flop? Compare 38.39%, your chance to hit by the river, with 33.33%, the equity a pot-size bet needs. The gap is +5.06 points, so this is a call. In dollars on a $100 pot, the call averages +$15.17 when no more betting follows. ### What is the fewest outs that can call a pot-size bet on the flop? A call starts to work at 9 outs: 34.97% to hit versus 33.33% needed. One out fewer drops the chance to 31.45%. You hold 10, which is 1 more than the minimum. ### Which hit chance fits a pot-size bet on the flop? Match the number to the betting. All-in or checked down: 38.39%. Facing another bet on the turn: 21.28%. The price is 33.33%, so the verdicts are call and fold in that order. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 666 out of 1,081; hit chance: 38.39%. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($100 into $300, or 33.33%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 47 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [10 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)