--- title: "Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "38.39% chance against a 20.00% price: 10 outs on the flop facing a third-pot bet is a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop 38.39% chance against a 20.00% price: 10 outs on the flop facing a third-pot bet is a call. On the flop, 10 outs are enough to call a third-pot bet. The price is 20.00% and the chance is 38.39%. - Verdict: Call (10 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 38.39% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +18.39 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict With 10 outs on the flop you hit 38.39% of the time by the river, and a third-pot bet only asks for 20.00%. That 18.39-point cushion makes this a clear call. Few single draws land on exactly 10 outs, so add up each way to improve and check the total. One card hits 21.28% of the time here. ## A $100 pot, step by step - The pot before betting: $100 - The bet: $33.33 - Chips you put in: $33.33 - Final pot if you call: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - What a miss costs: $33.33 - Your chance to hit: 38.39% - Calling is worth, on average: +$30.65 - Equity the call needs: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: +18.3904 points - Outs at break-even: 4.91 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +5.09 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $51.19 in and $20.54 out, so calling gains $30.65 on average at +0.920 per dollar called. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 1.6 : 1, and the pot lays 4 : 1 on a call. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 20.00% into 25.00%, and the margin into +13.3904 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of +5.0570 points, further from the truth. ## Your cushion over the price The threshold is 5 outs, a chance of 20.35%. With 10 in hand you are 5 outs clear of it. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 10 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +18.39 points | +$30.65 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +17.11 points | +$26.81 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +14.86 points | +$21.05 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +9.82 points | +$11.46 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -11.61 points | -$7.74 | Fold | Reverse implied odds are the risk here. A hit that costs you $79.84 later, 2.40 times your call, is where the call stops being worth it. ## Two cards to come, or just one 10 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 38.39% | +18.3904 points | +$30.65 | Call | | Next card only | 21.28% | +1.2766 points | +$2.13 | Call | Use either number and the verdict is a call. The next card is 21.28%, the full runout is 38.39%, and the price is 20.00%. ## Neighbors of this draw Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 20.00%, and each out moves the chance about 3.33 points. Outs 8 to 12 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [8 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 31.45% | +11.45 points | Call | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 34.97% | +14.97 points | Call | | 10 outs, this page | 38.39% | +18.39 points | Call | | [11 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 41.72% | +21.72 points | Call | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 44.96% | +24.96 points | Call | ## The same draw against other bet sizes How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 10 outs stay at 38.39%. 10 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +21.72 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +18.39 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +16.17 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +13.39 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +9.82 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +8.39 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +5.06 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +2.68 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +0.89 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -1.61 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -4.47 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -6.05 points | Fold | A bet larger than 1.65 times the pot ($165.34 on a $100 pot) asks for more than 38.39%. For this draw, 9 of the 12 sizes are calls. ## Next pages to read - [10 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Should you call a third-pot bet with 10 outs on the flop? The verdict is call. Your chance is 38.39% and the price is 20.00%, which leaves +18.39 points. On a $100 pot with a $33.33 bet, calling is worth +$30.65 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet. ### What is the fewest outs that can call a third-pot bet on the flop? To call a third-pot bet on the flop you want 5 outs or more. 5 reach 20.35% and 4 reach 16.47%, with 20.00% as the bar. Your 10 outs are 5 over. ### Should you use the chance on the next card or by the river? The river figure of 38.39% assumes no further betting; the next-card figure of 21.28% assumes you pay again on the turn. Against 20.00%, both say call, so you can use either. ## How this is computed The number is exact rather than estimated. 666 of the 1,081 pairs that could come are blanks, which leaves 38.39% for a hit. What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 47 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [10 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)