--- title: "Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "The exact answer for 10 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet: 38.39% to hit, 28.57% to break even, call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop The exact answer for 10 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet: 38.39% to hit, 28.57% to break even, call. A two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is worth calling with 10 outs. You hit 38.39% of the time by the river and the call needs 28.57%. - Verdict: Call (10 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 38.39% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: +9.82 points (your chance minus the price) ## What the numbers say This is one of the easier spots. 10 outs on the flop reach 38.39% by the river, the two-thirds-pot bet asks for just 28.57%, and the 9.82-point margin favors the call. Think of 10 outs as a running total of every card that improves you. 10 of the 47 unseen cards qualify, which is 21.28% on one card. ## The $100 pot example - The pot before betting: $100 - Size of the bet: $66.67 - You call: $66.67 - Final pot if you call: $233.33 - You can win on a hit: $166.67 - You lose on a miss: $66.67 - Your chance to hit: 38.39% - Expected value of calling: +$22.91 - Break-even equity: 28.57% - Exact margin over the price: +9.8190 points - Fractional outs at the price: 7.20 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +2.80 outs Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling gains $22.91 on average. The hit side averages $63.98, the miss side $41.07, and each dollar called returns +0.344. Put as odds, the draw is 1.6 : 1 against, and the pot offers 2.5 : 1 for the call. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 28.57% into 40.00%, and the margin into -1.6096 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 66.67% and a margin of -28.2763 points, further from the truth. ## Your cushion over the price With 10 outs you sit 2 outs above the minimum of 8 that a two-thirds-pot bet requires on the flop. Price of a two-thirds-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 10 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | +9.82 points | +$22.91 | Call | | $10 | 29.85% | +8.54 points | +$19.07 | Call | | $25 | 32.00% | +6.39 points | +$13.31 | Call | | $50 | 36.36% | +2.03 points | +$3.72 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -11.61 points | -$15.48 | Fold | Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $59.68, or 0.90 times your call, after a hit and still break even. ## The next card against the whole runout 10 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 38.39% | +9.8190 points | +$22.91 | Call | | Next card only | 21.28% | -7.2948 points | -$17.02 | Fold | Do not mix up the two chances. 38.39% is for seeing both cards and supports a call; 21.28% is for one card and supports a fold. A second bet makes the one-card view the right one. ## The call as outs change Same bet, same street, different draws. The row for 10 outs is marked, and every out is worth about 3.33 points. Outs 8 to 12 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [8 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 31.45% | +2.88 points | Call | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 34.97% | +6.40 points | Call | | 10 outs, this page | 38.39% | +9.82 points | Call | | [11 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 41.72% | +13.15 points | Call | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 44.96% | +16.39 points | Call | ## How bet size moves the answer One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 10 outs on the flop. 10 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +21.72 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +18.39 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +16.17 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +13.39 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +9.82 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +8.39 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +5.06 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +2.68 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +0.89 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -1.61 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -4.47 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -6.05 points | Fold | The largest bet this draw can call on the flop is 1.65 times the pot ($165.34 on a $100 pot). 10 outs call 9 of the 12 bet sizes listed. ## Next pages to read - [10 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Is a call correct with 10 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop? Your chance, 38.39%, set against the 28.57% price gives +9.82 points and a call. With a $100 pot, a $66.67 call and no more betting, the average value of the call is +$22.91. ### At what count of outs does a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop become a call? To call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop you want 8 outs or more. 8 reach 31.45% and 7 reach 27.84%, with 28.57% as the bar. Your 10 outs are 2 over. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? It depends on what follows. If the hand ends here, count both cards: 38.39%. If another bet is coming on the turn, count one card: 21.28%. Compared with 28.57%, that is a call in the first case and a fold in the second. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 666 out of 1,081; hit chance: 38.39%. Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [10 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)