--- title: "Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "The exact answer for 10 outs on the turn facing a two-thirds-pot bet: 21.74% to hit, 28.57% to break even, fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 10 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn The exact answer for 10 outs on the turn facing a two-thirds-pot bet: 21.74% to hit, 28.57% to break even, fold. Facing a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn with 10 outs, the call does not pay: 21.74% to hit against 28.57% needed. - Verdict: Fold (10 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 21.74% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -6.83 points (your chance minus the price) ## What the numbers say This one leans toward folding. You need 28.57%, you have 21.74%, and the 6.83-point difference is too wide to ignore. Counts like 10 outs often come from a mix of draws. Of 46 unseen cards, 10 help, or 21.74% on one card. ## A $100 pot, step by step - The pot before betting: $100 - Bet: $66.67 - Your call: $66.67 - Pot with your call in: $233.33 - You can win on a hit: $166.67 - You lose on a miss: $66.67 - Probability of a hit: 21.74% - Average value of the call: -$15.94 - Equity needed to break even: 28.57% - Margin, to four decimals: -6.8323 points - Fractional outs at the price: 13.14 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: -3.14 outs Assume the whole pot goes to you when you hit, the call is lost when you miss, and nothing more is bet. Calling then loses $15.94 on average: $36.23 from hits, minus $52.17 from misses, -0.239 per dollar called. Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 3.6 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2.5 : 1. Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 40.00%, when the real price is 28.57%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -18.2609 points; on 66.67%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -44.9275 points. ## Implied odds that would change the answer Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $73.33 more on later streets after hitting, which is 1.10 times the call you make. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 10 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -6.83 points | -$15.94 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -1.79 points | -$5.07 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | +1.74 points | +$5.80 | Call | | $250 | 13.79% | +7.95 points | +$38.41 | Call | | $500 | 9.09% | +12.65 points | +$92.75 | Call | The call starts to work at 14 outs, where the chance is 30.43%. Your 10 outs fall 4 outs below that. ## What the flop would have given you 10 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 38.39% | +9.8190 points | +$22.91 | Call | | Turn, one card to come | 21.74% | -6.8323 points | -$15.94 | Fold | The turn card has already fallen, and a draw that hit 38.39% from the flop is down to 21.74%. That drop of 16.65 points is why the same bet can be a call on the flop and a fold here. ## One out more or less Here are the neighbors of 10 outs, priced against the same 28.57%. One more out lifts your chance by about 2.17 points. Outs 8 to 12 on the turn against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 outs | 17.39% | -11.18 points | Fold | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 19.57% | -9.01 points | Fold | | 10 outs, this page | 21.74% | -6.83 points | Fold | | 11 outs | 23.91% | -4.66 points | Fold | | 12 outs | 26.09% | -2.48 points | Fold | ## The draw across every bet size Bigger bets ask for more equity while your chance stays at 21.74%. Here is every bet size against the same draw, with the row for this page marked. 10 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +5.07 points | Call | | third-pot | 20.00% | +1.74 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -0.48 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -3.26 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -6.83 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-turn-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -8.26 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -11.59 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -13.98 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -15.76 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -18.26 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -21.12 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -22.71 points | Fold | The largest bet this draw can call on the turn is 0.38 times the pot ($38.46 on a $100 pot). 10 outs call 2 of the 12 bet sizes listed. ## Next pages to read - [10 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 10 outs on the turn against a bet of two thirds of the pot? Verdict: fold. A two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57% and you have 21.74%, a margin of -6.83 points. For a $66.67 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is -$15.94. ### What is the minimum number of outs for a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn? Against 28.57%, the first count that works on the turn is 14, at 30.43%. At 13 the chance is 28.26%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 10 outs are 4 below. ### How many cards should you count when a two-thirds-pot bet arrives on the turn? Count the river card only. 21.74% is the full chance and the price is 28.57%, so the verdict is fold with a gap of 6.83 points. Nothing else is left to come. ## How this is computed The number is exact rather than estimated. 10 of the 46 cards that could come are outs, which is 21.74%. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $66.67 of a $233.33 pot (28.57%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 46 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [10 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)