--- title: "Call or Fold: 11 Outs vs full pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "11 outs on the flop hit 41.72% by the river. A pot-size bet needs 33.33%, so the verdict is call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 11 Outs vs full pot, Flop 11 outs on the flop hit 41.72% by the river. A pot-size bet needs 33.33%, so the verdict is call. Call. With 11 outs on the flop, your 41.72% chance beats the 33.33% price of a pot-size bet. - Verdict: Call (11 outs, flop, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 41.72% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: +8.39 points (your chance minus the price) ## How the verdict is reached With 11 outs on the flop you hit 41.72% of the time by the river, and a pot-size bet only asks for 33.33%. That 8.39-point cushion makes this a clear call. You will reach 11 outs by adding up separate draws. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 23.40% of the time. ## The arithmetic of this call - Starting pot: $100 - Bet: $100 - Chips you put in: $100 - Pot with your call in: $300 - Gain on a hit: $200 - Net loss when you miss: $100 - Chance to hit by the river: 41.72% - Average value of the call: +$25.16 - Break-even equity: 33.33% - Margin, to four decimals: +8.3873 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 8.53 outs - Margin measured in outs: +2.47 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $83.44 in and $58.28 out, so calling gains $25.16 on average at +0.252 per dollar called. Stated as odds, you are 1.4 : 1 against hitting and the call gets 2 : 1 from the pot. Do not forget your own call. Dividing the bet by the pot without it gives 50.00%, not 33.33%, and would show a margin of -8.2794 points. ## What could go wrong before the call flips With 11 outs you sit 2 outs above the minimum of 9 that a pot-size bet requires on the flop. Price of a pot-size call if you give money back after a hit, 11 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | +8.39 points | +$25.16 | Call | | $10 | 34.48% | +7.24 points | +$20.99 | Call | | $25 | 36.36% | +5.36 points | +$14.73 | Call | | $50 | 40.00% | +1.72 points | +$4.30 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -8.28 points | -$16.56 | Fold | The call keeps its edge until you lose $60.31 on later streets after hitting. That is 0.60 times the $100 you pay now. ## One card or two 11 outs against a pot-size bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 41.72% | +8.3873 points | +$25.16 | Call | | Next card only | 23.40% | -9.9291 points | -$29.79 | Fold | Here the cards to come matter. Two cards reach 41.72% and point to a call; one card reaches 23.40% and points to a fold. Which one applies depends on whether the turn brings another bet. ## Counts close to yours One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 11. Each out adds roughly 3.24 points against the 33.33% price. Outs 9 to 13 on the flop against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 34.97% | +1.63 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 38.39% | +5.06 points | Call | | 11 outs, this page | 41.72% | +8.39 points | Call | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 44.96% | +11.63 points | Call | | [13 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 48.10% | +14.77 points | Call | ## Other bet sizes for this draw One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 11 outs on the flop. 11 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +25.05 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +21.72 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +19.50 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +16.72 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +13.15 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +11.72 points | Call | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | +8.39 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +6.01 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +4.22 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +1.72 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -1.14 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -2.72 points | Fold | The largest bet this draw can call on the flop is 2.52 times the pot ($251.96 on a $100 pot). 11 outs call 10 of the 12 bet sizes listed. ## Related pages - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Are 11 outs on the flop worth a call against a bet of the full pot? The answer is a call, with a margin of +8.39 points. 11 outs on the flop reach 41.72%; a bet of $100 into $100 needs 33.33%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$25.16 on average. ### What count of outs clears the price of a pot-size bet on the flop? Look for 9 outs. That is the smallest count whose chance, 34.97%, reaches the 33.33% price; 8 manages 31.45%. You have 11, so you are 2 ahead of the minimum. ### How many cards should you count when a pot-size bet arrives on the flop? The river figure of 41.72% assumes no further betting; the next-card figure of 23.40% assumes you pay again on the turn. Against 33.33%, the first says call and the second says fold. ## How this is computed Here is how 41.72% was found. Deal every pair of the 47 unseen cards: 630 of 1,081 pairs contain no out. Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $100 / $300 = 33.33%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)