--- title: "Call or Fold: 11 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Is a call right with 11 outs on the flop against a third-pot bet? Chance 41.72%, price 20.00%, so call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 11 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop Is a call right with 11 outs on the flop against a third-pot bet? Chance 41.72%, price 20.00%, so call. Here is why a call works on the flop: a third-pot bet needs 20.00% equity, and 11 outs supply 41.72%. - Verdict: Call (11 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 41.72% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +21.72 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict Your draw is priced at 20.00% and it arrives 41.72% of the time. A lead of 21.72 points is wide enough that the call stands even if the numbers shift a little. A total of 11 outs tends to come from stacking several ways to improve. The next card is an out 23.40% of the time, 11 in 47. ## Worked through on a $100 pot - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - Size of the bet: $33.33 - Chips you put in: $33.33 - Final pot if you call: $166.67 - What a hit wins: $133.33 - You lose on a miss: $33.33 - Your chance to hit: 41.72% - Average value of the call: +$36.20 - Equity the call needs: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: +21.7206 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 4.91 outs - Outs above the price: +6.09 outs If you win the whole pot on a hit and lose your call otherwise, with no more betting, calling gains $36.20 on average. Hits add $55.63 on average and misses cost $19.43 on average, or +1.086 per dollar called. Put as odds, the draw is 1.4 : 1 against, and the pot offers 4 : 1 for the call. Skipping your own call in the pot gives a price of 25.00% where 20.00% is correct, and a margin of +16.7206 points instead of +21.72 points. The starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of +8.3873 points, which is wrong by even more. ## How many outs you could lose Against this bet the draw needs 5 outs at the least. You have 6 outs more than that, so the call has some room. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 11 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +21.72 points | +$36.20 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +20.44 points | +$32.03 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +18.19 points | +$25.77 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +13.15 points | +$15.34 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -8.28 points | -$5.52 | Fold | Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $86.77, or 2.60 times your call, after a hit and still break even. ## Two cards to come, or just one 11 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 41.72% | +21.7206 points | +$36.20 | Call | | Next card only | 23.40% | +3.4043 points | +$5.67 | Call | No conflict here: 41.72% for two cards and 23.40% for one both give a call against the 20.00% price, so you need not decide which view applies. ## Neighbors of this draw Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 20.00%, and each out moves the chance about 3.24 points. Outs 9 to 13 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 34.97% | +14.97 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 38.39% | +18.39 points | Call | | 11 outs, this page | 41.72% | +21.72 points | Call | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 44.96% | +24.96 points | Call | | [13 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 48.10% | +28.10 points | Call | ## Every bet size, one draw Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 11 outs on the flop and a bet of a different size. 11 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +25.05 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +21.72 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +19.50 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +16.72 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +13.15 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +11.72 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +8.39 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +6.01 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +4.22 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +1.72 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -1.14 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -2.72 points | Fold | Past 2.52 times the pot ($251.96 on a $100 pot) the price outruns your chance. Of the 12 sizes, 10 are calls for 11 outs on the flop. ## Pages that use the same math - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Should you call a third-pot bet with 11 outs on the flop? The answer is a call, with a margin of +21.72 points. 11 outs on the flop reach 41.72%; a bet of $33.33 into $100 needs 20.00%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$36.20 on average. ### How many outs make a call correct against a third of the pot on the flop? The threshold is 5 outs. It gives 20.35%, clearing 20.00%, whereas 4 gives only 16.47%. Holding 11 puts you 6 above it, with a chance of 41.72%. ### One card or two: which number belongs next to the 20.00% price? The river figure of 41.72% assumes no further betting; the next-card figure of 23.40% assumes you pay again on the turn. Against 20.00%, both say call, so you can use either. ## How this is computed Counting is exact: the pairs of unseen cards with no out number 630 out of 1,081, so hitting by the river has chance 41.72%. The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 20.00%, from $33.33 into $166.67, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 47 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)