--- title: "Call or Fold: 11 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "A two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57% and 11 outs on the flop give 41.72%, a margin of +13.15 points and a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 11 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop A two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57% and 11 outs on the flop give 41.72%, a margin of +13.15 points and a call. Call. With 11 outs on the flop, your 41.72% chance beats the 28.57% price of a two-thirds-pot bet. - Verdict: Call (11 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 41.72% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: +13.15 points (your chance minus the price) ## Your chance and the price 41.72% against 28.57%: the draw beats the price by 13.15 points. On this flop against a two-thirds-pot bet, that is a comfortable call. Counts like 11 outs often come from a mix of draws. Of 47 unseen cards, 11 help, or 23.40% on one card. ## The $100 pot example - The pot before betting: $100 - Bet: $66.67 - Chips you put in: $66.67 - Final pot if you call: $233.33 - Gain on a hit: $166.67 - Net loss when you miss: $66.67 - Your chance to hit: 41.72% - Expected value of a call: +$30.68 - Equity the call needs: 28.57% - Margin, to four decimals: +13.1492 points - Break-even count of outs: 7.20 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: +3.80 outs If you win the whole pot on a hit and lose your call otherwise, with no more betting, calling gains $30.68 on average. Hits add $69.53 on average and misses cost $38.85 on average, or +0.460 per dollar called. Put as odds, the draw is 1.4 : 1 against, and the pot offers 2.5 : 1 for the call. A common slip is to divide the bet by the pot after the bet but before your call. That gives 40.00% instead of 28.57% and would put your margin at +1.7206 points. Using the bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, is further off and would put it at -24.9460 points. ## How many outs you could lose Against this bet the draw needs 8 outs at the least. You have 3 outs more than that, so the call has some room. Price of a two-thirds-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 11 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | +13.15 points | +$30.68 | Call | | $10 | 29.85% | +11.87 points | +$26.51 | Call | | $25 | 32.00% | +9.72 points | +$20.25 | Call | | $50 | 36.36% | +5.36 points | +$9.82 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -8.28 points | -$11.04 | Fold | Think of $73.54 as your safety room: the most you can give back after a hit, 1.10 times your call, with the call still level. ## One card or two 11 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 41.72% | +13.1492 points | +$30.68 | Call | | Next card only | 23.40% | -5.1672 points | -$12.06 | Fold | Same draw, two answers. Count both cards and the chance is 41.72%, a call; count just the next card and it is 23.40%, a fold. The price in both cases is 28.57%. ## Draws around this one One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 11. Each out adds roughly 3.24 points against the 28.57% price. Outs 9 to 13 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 34.97% | +6.40 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 38.39% | +9.82 points | Call | | 11 outs, this page | 41.72% | +13.15 points | Call | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 44.96% | +16.39 points | Call | | [13 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 48.10% | +19.53 points | Call | ## Where the bet size flips the call Keep 11 outs and change only the bet. The price rises from the smallest size to the largest, and the two-thirds-pot row is marked as this page. 11 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +25.05 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +21.72 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +19.50 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +16.72 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +13.15 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +11.72 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +8.39 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +6.01 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +4.22 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +1.72 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -1.14 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -2.72 points | Fold | 11 outs stop paying at 2.52 times the pot ($251.96 on a $100 pot). The call holds up against 10 of the 12 bet sizes. ## Pages that use the same math - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What is the right play with 11 outs when a two-thirds-pot bet comes on the flop? The answer is a call, with a margin of +13.15 points. 11 outs on the flop reach 41.72%; a bet of $66.67 into $100 needs 28.57%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$30.68 on average. ### How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of two thirds of the pot on the flop? The threshold is 8 outs. It gives 31.45%, clearing 28.57%, whereas 7 gives only 27.84%. Holding 11 puts you 3 above it, with a chance of 41.72%. ### Which hit chance fits a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop? Match the number to the betting. All-in or checked down: 41.72%. Facing another bet on the turn: 23.40%. The price is 28.57%, so the verdicts are call and fold in that order. ## How this is computed Counting is exact: the pairs of unseen cards with no out number 630 out of 1,081, so hitting by the river has chance 41.72%. The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 28.57%, from $66.67 into $233.33, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 47 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)