--- title: "Call or Fold: 12 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 12 outs on the flop give 44.96%, a margin of +24.96 points and a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 12 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 12 outs on the flop give 44.96%, a margin of +24.96 points and a call. Your draw is priced fairly enough to call here: 44.96% to hit, 20.00% needed against a third-pot bet on the flop. - Verdict: Call (12 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 44.96% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +24.96 points (your chance minus the price) ## Chance against price 44.96% against 20.00%: the draw beats the price by 24.96 points. On this flop against a third-pot bet, that is a comfortable call. Count a flush draw with a gutshot and you land on 12 outs. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 25.53% of the time. ## The same spot in dollars - The pot before betting: $100 - Your opponent bets: $33.33 - Cost to call: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - Net loss when you miss: $33.33 - Probability of a hit: 44.96% - Expected value of calling: +$41.60 - Equity needed to break even: 20.00% - Exact margin over the price: +24.9584 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 4.91 outs - Margin measured in outs: +7.09 outs Suppose a hit wins the entire pot, a miss loses your call, and no more betting follows. The average gain is $59.94, the average loss is $18.35, and calling gains $41.60 on average, or +1.248 per dollar called. As odds, 1.22 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 4 : 1. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 20.00% into 25.00%, and the margin into +19.9584 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of +11.6250 points, further from the truth. ## How much room the call has If some outs turned out to be shared with a better hand, you could give up 7 outs and still call. The floor is 5, at 20.35%. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 12 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +24.96 points | +$41.60 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +23.68 points | +$37.10 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +21.43 points | +$30.36 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +16.39 points | +$19.12 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -5.04 points | -$3.36 | Fold | The call keeps its edge until you lose $92.52 on later streets after hitting. That is 2.78 times the $33.33 you pay now. ## One card or two 12 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 44.96% | +24.9584 points | +$41.60 | Call | | Next card only | 25.53% | +5.5319 points | +$9.22 | Call | Whether you count one card or two, the answer is a call. The river figure is 44.96%, the next-card figure is 25.53%, and both are measured against 20.00%. ## The call as outs change Here are the neighbors of 12 outs, priced against the same 20.00%. One more out lifts your chance by about 3.15 points. Outs 10 to 14 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 38.39% | +18.39 points | Call | | [11 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 41.72% | +21.72 points | Call | | 12 outs, this page | 44.96% | +24.96 points | Call | | [13 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 48.10% | +28.10 points | Call | | [14 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 51.16% | +31.16 points | Call | ## The draw across every bet size Bigger bets ask for more equity while your chance stays at 44.96%. Here is every bet size against the same draw, with the row for this page marked. 12 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +28.29 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +24.96 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +22.74 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +19.96 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +16.39 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +14.96 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +11.63 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +9.24 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +7.46 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +4.96 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +2.10 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +0.51 points | Call | Your 44.96% chance tops every price in the table, so every bet size is a call: the largest price, 44.44%, is still below it. ## More on these numbers - [12 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 12 outs on the flop against a bet of a third of the pot? Verdict: call. A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and you have 44.96%, a margin of +24.96 points. For a $33.33 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is +$41.60. ### How many outs make a call correct against a third of the pot on the flop? 5 outs is the line. At 5 the chance is 20.35%, enough for 20.00%; one fewer gives 16.47%, which is not. Your 12 outs sit 7 above it on the flop, at 44.96%. ### One card or two: which number belongs next to the 20.00% price? Match the number to the betting: 44.96% if all-in or checked down, 25.53% if you face another bet on the turn. The price is 20.00%, and both numbers agree on call. ## How this is computed Here is how 44.96% was found. Deal every pair of the 47 unseen cards: 595 of 1,081 pairs contain no out. Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [12 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)