--- title: "Call or Fold: 13 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "13 outs on the flop hit 48.10% by the river. A third-pot bet needs 20.00%, so the verdict is call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 13 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop 13 outs on the flop hit 48.10% by the river. A third-pot bet needs 20.00%, so the verdict is call. 13 outs against a third-pot bet on the flop clear the price. You need 20.00% and you have 48.10%. - Verdict: Call (13 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 48.10% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +28.10 points (your chance minus the price) ## How the verdict is reached This is one of the easier spots. 13 outs on the flop reach 48.10% by the river, the third-pot bet asks for just 20.00%, and the 28.10-point margin favors the call. You will reach 13 outs by adding up separate draws. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 27.66% of the time. ## A $100 pot, step by step - Pot before the bet: $100 - Your opponent bets: $33.33 - Cost to call: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - What a miss costs: $33.33 - Your chance to hit: 48.10% - Average value of the call: +$46.84 - Price of the call: 20.00% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: +28.1036 points - Break-even count of outs: 4.91 outs - Margin measured in outs: +8.09 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $64.14 in and $17.30 out, so calling gains $46.84 on average at +1.405 per dollar called. In odds, you face 1.08 : 1 against you and the pot pays 4 : 1. The price is 20.00% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 25.00%, a margin of +23.1036 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 33.33% puts the margin at +14.7703 points. ## Where the call would flip The threshold is 5 outs, a chance of 20.35%. With 13 in hand you are 8 outs clear of it. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 13 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +28.10 points | +$46.84 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +26.83 points | +$42.03 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +24.57 points | +$34.81 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +19.53 points | +$22.79 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -1.90 points | -$1.26 | Fold | If hitting means paying off a bigger hand later, the call survives a loss of $97.37. That is 2.92 times the $33.33 call. ## Two views of the same draw 13 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 48.10% | +28.1036 points | +$46.84 | Call | | Next card only | 27.66% | +7.6596 points | +$12.77 | Call | No conflict here: 48.10% for two cards and 27.66% for one both give a call against the 20.00% price, so you need not decide which view applies. ## Nearby draws Here are the neighbors of 13 outs, priced against the same 20.00%. One more out lifts your chance by about 3.05 points. Outs 11 to 15 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [11 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 41.72% | +21.72 points | Call | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 44.96% | +24.96 points | Call | | 13 outs, this page | 48.10% | +28.10 points | Call | | [14 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 51.16% | +31.16 points | Call | | [15 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 54.12% | +34.12 points | Call | ## Other bet sizes for this draw One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 13 outs on the flop. 13 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +31.44 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +28.10 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +25.88 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +23.10 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +19.53 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +18.10 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +14.77 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +12.39 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +10.60 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +8.10 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +5.25 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +3.66 points | Call | 13 outs are strong enough to call every size listed. A chance of 48.10% beats even the biggest price in the table. ## Related pages - [13 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/13-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Does the math favor calling a third-pot bet with 13 outs on the flop? The answer is a call, with a margin of +28.10 points. 13 outs on the flop reach 48.10%; a bet of $33.33 into $100 needs 20.00%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$46.84 on average. ### How strong must a draw be to call a third-pot bet on the flop? The threshold is 5 outs. It gives 20.35%, clearing 20.00%, whereas 4 gives only 16.47%. Holding 13 puts you 8 above it, with a chance of 48.10%. ### Which hit chance fits a third-pot bet on the flop? Count two cards, 48.10%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 27.66%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 20.00%, either number leads to a call. ## How this is computed The hit chance comes straight from combinations. Out of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, 561 miss every out, so you hit 48.10% of the time. Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [13 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/13-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)