--- title: "Call or Fold: 14 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Call or fold with 14 outs on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet: 51.16% to hit, 28.57% needed, call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 14 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop Call or fold with 14 outs on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet: 51.16% to hit, 28.57% needed, call. Call. With 14 outs on the flop, your 51.16% chance beats the 28.57% price of a two-thirds-pot bet. - Verdict: Call (14 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 51.16% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: +22.58 points (your chance minus the price) ## The price of the call Pay the two-thirds-pot bet and you get a better deal than the draw needs. You need 28.57%, you have 51.16%, and the 22.58-point difference is large. 14 out of 47 unseen cards is a combined count rather than one named draw, and one card hits 29.79% of the time. ## The $100 pot example - Starting pot: $100 - Size of the bet: $66.67 - Your call: $66.67 - Final pot if you call: $233.33 - What a hit wins: $166.67 - Net loss when you miss: $66.67 - Chance to hit by the river: 51.16% - Calling is worth, on average: +$52.70 - Price of the call: 28.57% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: +22.5849 points - Break-even count of outs: 7.20 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +6.80 outs Expected value says the same in dollars. Win the whole pot on a hit, lose your call on a miss, add no more betting, and the call gains $52.70 on average: $85.26 in, $32.56 out, +0.790 per dollar called. Read as odds: 0.95 : 1 against you, 2.5 : 1 from the pot. The price is 28.57% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 40.00%, a margin of +11.1563 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 66.67% puts the margin at -15.5103 points. ## How much room the call has The fewest outs that still call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is 8. You hold 14, so you have 6 outs to spare before the call flips to a fold. Price of a two-thirds-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 14 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | +22.58 points | +$52.70 | Call | | $10 | 29.85% | +21.31 points | +$47.58 | Call | | $25 | 32.00% | +19.16 points | +$39.91 | Call | | $50 | 36.36% | +14.79 points | +$27.12 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | +1.16 points | +$1.54 | Call | The call keeps its edge until you lose $103.01 on later streets after hitting. That is 1.55 times the $66.67 you pay now. ## One card or two 14 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 51.16% | +22.5849 points | +$52.70 | Call | | Next card only | 29.79% | +1.2158 points | +$2.84 | Call | Here the cards to come do not matter for the verdict. 29.79% on one card and 51.16% on two both say call at a price of 28.57%. ## How the answer moves with outs Here are the neighbors of 14 outs, priced against the same 28.57%. One more out lifts your chance by about 2.96 points. Outs 12 to 16 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [12 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/12-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 44.96% | +16.39 points | Call | | [13 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 48.10% | +19.53 points | Call | | 14 outs, this page | 51.16% | +22.58 points | Call | | [15 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 54.12% | +25.55 points | Call | | [16 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 56.98% | +28.41 points | Call | ## Changing the bet, keeping the draw One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 14 outs on the flop. 14 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +34.49 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +31.16 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +28.93 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +26.16 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +22.58 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +21.16 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +17.82 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +15.44 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +13.66 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +11.16 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +8.30 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +6.71 points | Call | No bet size here outprices a 51.16% chance. The call works at all 12 sizes, since the highest price is 44.44%. ## Where to look next - [14 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/14-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Is a call correct with 14 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop? Math says call. The two-thirds-pot bet of $66.67 needs 28.57% equity, 14 outs on the flop give 51.16%, and the margin is +22.58 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth +$52.70 on average. ### How many outs make a call correct against two thirds of the pot on the flop? 8 outs is the line. At 8 the chance is 31.45%, enough for 28.57%; one fewer gives 27.84%, which is not. Your 14 outs sit 6 above it on the flop, at 51.16%. ### One card or two: which number belongs next to the 28.57% price? It depends on what follows, but here it does not matter. If the hand ends here, count both cards: 51.16%. If another bet is coming on the turn, count one card: 29.79%. Against 28.57%, both say call. ## How this is computed No sampling is involved. On the flop there are 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, and 528 of them contain no out, which leaves 51.16% for at least one out. The model is deliberately simple: call everything, win everything on a hit, face no more bets, deal from 47 equally likely unseen cards, and ignore an opponent's holding. With the price at $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%, later streets and shared outs are what change the real answer. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [14 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/14-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)