--- title: "Call or Fold: 15 Outs vs 3/4 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "54.12% chance against a 30.00% price: 15 outs on the flop facing a three-quarter-pot bet is a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 15 Outs vs 3/4 pot, Flop 54.12% chance against a 30.00% price: 15 outs on the flop facing a three-quarter-pot bet is a call. Facing a three-quarter-pot bet on the flop with 15 outs, the call is correct: 54.12% to hit against 30.00% needed. - Verdict: Call (15 outs, flop, three-quarter-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 54.12% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 30.00% ($75 into a pot of $250) - Margin over the price: +24.12 points (your chance minus the price) ## The price of the call 54.12% against 30.00%: the draw beats the price by 24.12 points. On this flop against a three-quarter-pot bet, that is a comfortable call. The count matches a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw, so you can read this page as that draw. The very next card completes it 31.91% of the time, 15 out of 47. ## The $100 pot example - Pot before the bet: $100 - Bet: $75 - You call: $75 - Total pot after calling: $250 - Gain on a hit: $175 - You lose on a miss: $75 - Chance to hit by the river: 54.12% - Average value of the call: +$60.29 - Equity needed to break even: 30.00% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: +24.1166 points - Outs at break-even: 7.59 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +7.41 outs Expected value says the same in dollars. Win the whole pot on a hit, lose your call on a miss, add no more betting, and the call gains $60.29 on average: $94.70 in, $34.41 out, +0.804 per dollar called. Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 0.85 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2.33 : 1. The price is 30.00% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 42.86%, a margin of +11.2594 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 75.00% puts the margin at -20.8834 points. ## Where the call would flip The fewest outs that still call a three-quarter-pot bet on the flop is 8. You hold 15, so you have 7 outs to spare before the call flips to a fold. Price of a three-quarter-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 15 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 30.00% | +24.12 points | +$60.29 | Call | | $10 | 31.25% | +22.87 points | +$54.88 | Call | | $25 | 33.33% | +20.78 points | +$46.76 | Call | | $50 | 37.50% | +16.62 points | +$33.23 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | +4.12 points | +$6.17 | Call | Break-even on later streets sits at $111.41 given back, or 1.49 times your call. ## One card or two 15 outs against a three-quarter-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 54.12% | +24.1166 points | +$60.29 | Call | | Next card only | 31.91% | +1.9149 points | +$4.79 | Call | The two chances agree on the verdict. 54.12% by the river and 31.91% on one card each lead to a call against 30.00%. ## How the answer moves with outs The table shows 15 outs and the draws around it on the flop, all against the same three-quarter-pot bet. Each extra out adds about 2.87 points to the chance here. Outs 13 to 17 on the flop against a three-quarter-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [13 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/13-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 48.10% | +18.10 points | Call | | [14 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 51.16% | +21.16 points | Call | | 15 outs, this page | 54.12% | +24.12 points | Call | | [16 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 56.98% | +26.98 points | Call | | [17 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 59.76% | +29.76 points | Call | ## Other bet sizes for this draw Your 54.12% chance is fixed, so the only thing that moves is the price. The 12 rows below price the call at every bet size on the flop. 15 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +37.45 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +34.12 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +31.89 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +29.12 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +25.55 points | Call | | three-quarter-pot, this page | 30.00% | +24.12 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +20.78 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +18.40 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +16.62 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +14.12 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +11.26 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +9.67 points | Call | With 54.12% to hit, no bet on the list is too big. 15 outs call all 12 sizes on the flop. ## Where to look next - [15 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a three-quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/three-quarter-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Does the math favor calling a three-quarter-pot bet with 15 outs on the flop? Your chance, 54.12%, set against the 30.00% price gives +24.12 points and a call. With a $100 pot, a $75 call and no more betting, the average value of the call is +$60.29. ### What count of outs clears the price of a three-quarter-pot bet on the flop? 8 outs is the line. At 8 the chance is 31.45%, enough for 30.00%; one fewer gives 27.84%, which is not. Your 15 outs sit 7 above it on the flop, at 54.12%. ### Should you use the chance on the next card or by the river? Match the number to the betting: 54.12% if all-in or checked down, 31.91% if you face another bet on the turn. The price is 30.00%, and both numbers agree on call. ## How this is computed The number is exact rather than estimated. 496 of the 1,081 pairs that could come are blanks, which leaves 54.12% for a hit. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($75 into $250, or 30.00%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 47 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [15 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a three-quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/three-quarter-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)