--- title: "Call or Fold: 15 Outs vs full pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "With 15 outs on the turn you hit 32.61%; a pot-size bet needs 33.33%. The math says fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 15 Outs vs full pot, Turn With 15 outs on the turn you hit 32.61%; a pot-size bet needs 33.33%. The math says fold. Fold. With 15 outs on the turn, your 32.61% chance falls short of the 33.33% price of a pot-size bet. - Verdict: Fold (15 outs, turn, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 32.61% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: -0.72 points (your chance minus the price) ## Comparing the draw with the bet Folding beats calling by a hair. 32.61% misses 33.33% by 0.72 points, so the call loses a little on average. 15 out of 46 unseen cards is the shape of a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw, and a single card hits 32.61% of the time. ## Worked through on a $100 pot - Starting pot: $100 - Size of the bet: $100 - You call: $100 - Total pot after calling: $300 - You can win on a hit: $200 - You lose on a miss: $100 - Your chance to hit: 32.61% - Expected value of calling: -$2.17 - Equity needed to break even: 33.33% - Exact margin over the price: -0.7246 points - Break-even count of outs: 15.33 outs - Margin measured in outs: -0.33 outs If you win the whole pot on a hit and lose your call otherwise, with no more betting, calling loses $2.17 on average. Hits add $65.22 on average and misses cost $67.39 on average, or -0.022 per dollar called. Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 2.07 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2 : 1. The price is 33.33% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 50.00%, a margin of -17.3913 points that does not exist. ## Implied odds that would change the answer The shortfall in dollars is $6.67: the amount a hit would have to win later for 32.61% to be enough. It equals 0.07 times your $100 call. Price of a pot-size call with future winnings added, 15 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | -0.72 points | -$2.17 | Fold | | $50 | 28.57% | +4.04 points | +$14.13 | Call | | $100 | 25.00% | +7.61 points | +$30.43 | Call | | $250 | 18.18% | +14.43 points | +$79.35 | Call | | $500 | 12.50% | +20.11 points | +$160.87 | Call | The call starts to work at 16 outs, where the chance is 34.78%. Your 15 outs fall 1 out below that. ## Flop and turn compared 15 outs against a pot-size bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 54.12% | +20.7832 points | +$62.35 | Call | | Turn, one card to come | 32.61% | -0.7246 points | -$2.17 | Fold | Compare the streets. With two cards left, 15 outs hit 54.12% (a call); with one card left they hit 32.61% (a fold). The difference is 21.51 points. ## Draws around this one Here are the neighbors of 15 outs, priced against the same 33.33%. One more out lifts your chance by about 2.17 points. Outs 13 to 17 on the turn against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 13 outs | 28.26% | -5.07 points | Fold | | 14 outs | 30.43% | -2.90 points | Fold | | 15 outs, this page | 32.61% | -0.72 points | Fold | | 16 outs | 34.78% | +1.45 points | Call | | 17 outs | 36.96% | +3.62 points | Call | ## Changing the bet, keeping the draw How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 15 outs stay at 32.61%. 15 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +15.94 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +12.61 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +10.39 points | Call | | half-pot | 25.00% | +7.61 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +4.04 points | Call | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +2.61 points | Call | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | -0.72 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -3.11 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -4.89 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -7.39 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -10.25 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -11.84 points | Fold | The largest bet this draw can call on the turn is 0.94 times the pot ($93.75 on a $100 pot). 15 outs call 6 of the 12 bet sizes listed. ## Keep exploring - [15 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Should you call a pot-size bet with 15 outs on the turn? Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 32.61% to hit and 33.33% to break even. The first minus the second is -0.72 points, which makes this a fold, and the call averages -$2.17 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows. ### How many outs do you need to call a pot-size bet on the turn? Look for 16 outs. That is the smallest count whose chance, 34.78%, reaches the 33.33% price; 15 manages 32.61%. You have 15, so you are 1 behind the minimum. ### Which hit chance fits a pot-size bet on the turn? Both views collapse into 32.61%. Against the 33.33% price of a pot-size bet, that leaves -0.72 points and a fold, and the choice between one card and two no longer applies. ## How this is computed Here is how 32.61% was found. There is one card to come, so the chance is read directly from 15 outs among 46 unseen cards. The model is deliberately simple: call everything, win everything on a hit, face no more bets, deal from 46 equally likely unseen cards, and ignore an opponent's holding. With the price at $100 / $300 = 33.33%, later streets and shared outs are what change the real answer. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [15 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)