--- title: "Call or Fold: 15 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Call or fold with 15 outs on the turn against a third-pot bet: 32.61% to hit, 20.00% needed, call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 15 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn Call or fold with 15 outs on the turn against a third-pot bet: 32.61% to hit, 20.00% needed, call. On the turn, 15 outs are enough to call a third-pot bet. The price is 20.00% and the chance is 32.61%. - Verdict: Call (15 outs, turn, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 32.61% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +12.61 points (your chance minus the price) ## How the verdict is reached This is one of the easier spots. 15 outs on the turn reach 32.61% by the river, the third-pot bet asks for just 20.00%, and the 12.61-point margin favors the call. The usual home for 15 outs is a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw. One card from the 46 unseen ones completes it 32.61% of the time. ## One hand, in dollars - Starting pot: $100 - Size of the bet: $33.33 - You call: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - What a miss costs: $33.33 - Probability of a hit: 32.61% - Calling is worth, on average: +$21.01 - Equity needed to break even: 20.00% - Exact margin over the price: +12.6087 points - Break-even count of outs: 9.20 outs - Margin measured in outs: +5.80 outs With no more betting, the whole pot won on a hit and the call lost on a miss, the call gains $21.01 on average. The hit side averages $43.48, the miss side $22.46, and each dollar called returns +0.630. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 2.07 : 1, and the pot lays 4 : 1 on a call. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 20.00% into 25.00%, and the margin into +7.6087 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of -0.7246 points, further from the truth. ## Reverse implied odds and your margin The threshold is 10 outs, a chance of 21.74%. With 15 in hand you are 5 outs clear of it. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 15 outs on the turn | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +12.61 points | +$21.01 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +11.33 points | +$17.75 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +9.08 points | +$12.86 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +4.04 points | +$4.71 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -17.39 points | -$11.59 | Fold | After a hit you could give back up to $64.44 on later streets, 1.93 times your call, before the call stops paying. ## One card to come instead of two 15 outs against a third-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 54.12% | +34.1166 points | +$56.86 | Call | | Turn, one card to come | 32.61% | +12.6087 points | +$21.01 | Call | One street later the draw is weaker. The same 15 outs hit 54.12% from the flop and 32.61% from the turn, a drop of 21.51 points, and the verdict on the flop would have been a call. ## Counts close to yours How fast does the margin move? About 2.17 points per out on the turn. The rows below keep the third-pot bet fixed and change only the outs. Outs 13 to 17 on the turn against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 13 outs | 28.26% | +8.26 points | Call | | 14 outs | 30.43% | +10.43 points | Call | | 15 outs, this page | 32.61% | +12.61 points | Call | | 16 outs | 34.78% | +14.78 points | Call | | [17 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 36.96% | +16.96 points | Call | ## How bet size moves the answer How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 15 outs stay at 32.61%. 15 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +15.94 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +12.61 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +10.39 points | Call | | half-pot | 25.00% | +7.61 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +4.04 points | Call | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +2.61 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -0.72 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -3.11 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -4.89 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -7.39 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -10.25 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -11.84 points | Fold | A bet larger than 0.94 times the pot ($93.75 on a $100 pot) asks for more than 32.61%. For this draw, 6 of the 12 sizes are calls. ## Related pages - [15 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Are 15 outs on the turn worth a call against a bet of a third of the pot? Math says call. The third-pot bet of $33.33 needs 20.00% equity, 15 outs on the turn give 32.61%, and the margin is +12.61 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth +$21.01 on average. ### How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of a third of the pot on the turn? The threshold is 10 outs. It gives 21.74%, clearing 20.00%, whereas 9 gives only 19.57%. Holding 15 puts you 5 above it, with a chance of 32.61%. ### Should you use the chance on the next card or by the river? There is no difference on the turn, because one card remains. Use 32.61% and compare it with 20.00%: the margin is +12.61 points, a call, whichever way you phrase the question. ## How this is computed The hit chance comes straight from combinations. With one card left and 15 outs in 46 cards, you hit 32.61% of the time. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $33.33 of a $166.67 pot (20.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 46 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [15 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)