--- title: "Call or Fold: 16 Outs vs full pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Call or fold with 16 outs on the flop against a pot-size bet: 56.98% to hit, 33.33% needed, call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 16 Outs vs full pot, Flop Call or fold with 16 outs on the flop against a pot-size bet: 56.98% to hit, 33.33% needed, call. Here is why a call works on the flop: a pot-size bet needs 33.33% equity, and 16 outs supply 56.98%. - Verdict: Call (16 outs, flop, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 56.98% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: +23.65 points (your chance minus the price) ## The call in numbers The price is 33.33% and your chance is 56.98%. You sit 23.65 points above the line, which is a wide gap, so you call. A total of 16 outs tends to come from stacking several ways to improve. The next card is an out 34.04% of the time, 16 in 47. ## Counting the chips on a $100 pot - The pot before betting: $100 - Bet: $100 - You call: $100 - Total pot after calling: $300 - You can win on a hit: $200 - Net loss when you miss: $100 - Chance to hit by the river: 56.98% - Expected value of a call: +$70.95 - Break-even equity: 33.33% - Unrounded margin: +23.6509 points - Fractional outs at the price: 8.53 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: +7.47 outs Expected value says the same in dollars. Win the whole pot on a hit, lose your call on a miss, add no more betting, and the call gains $70.95 on average: $113.97 in, $43.02 out, +0.710 per dollar called. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 0.75 : 1, and the pot lays 2 : 1 on a call. The correct pot to divide by includes your call. Without it the price reads 50.00% rather than 33.33%, and the margin reads +6.9843 points. ## How much room the call has With 16 outs you sit 7 outs above the minimum of 9 that a pot-size bet requires on the flop. Price of a pot-size call if you give money back after a hit, 16 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | +23.65 points | +$70.95 | Call | | $10 | 34.48% | +22.50 points | +$65.25 | Call | | $25 | 36.36% | +20.62 points | +$56.71 | Call | | $50 | 40.00% | +16.98 points | +$42.46 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | +6.98 points | +$13.97 | Call | Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $124.51, or 1.25 times your call, after a hit and still break even. ## Pricing one card at a time 16 outs against a pot-size bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 56.98% | +23.6509 points | +$70.95 | Call | | Next card only | 34.04% | +0.7092 points | +$2.13 | Call | Use either number and the verdict is a call. The next card is 34.04%, the full runout is 56.98%, and the price is 33.33%. ## A few outs either way One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 16. Each out adds roughly 2.78 points against the 33.33% price. Outs 14 to 18 on the flop against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [14 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 51.16% | +17.82 points | Call | | [15 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 54.12% | +20.78 points | Call | | 16 outs, this page | 56.98% | +23.65 points | Call | | [17 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 59.76% | +26.43 points | Call | | [18 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 62.44% | +29.11 points | Call | ## The draw across every bet size One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 16 outs on the flop. 16 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +40.32 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +36.98 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +34.76 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +31.98 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +28.41 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +26.98 points | Call | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | +23.65 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +21.27 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +19.48 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +16.98 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +14.13 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +12.54 points | Call | Your chance is high enough that any bet in the table is a call. All 12 sizes clear with 56.98%. ## More on these numbers - [16 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Are 16 outs on the flop worth a call against a bet of the full pot? Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 56.98% to hit and 33.33% to break even. The first minus the second is +23.65 points, which makes this a call, and the call averages +$70.95 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows. ### At what count of outs does a pot-size bet on the flop become a call? 9 outs is the line. At 9 the chance is 34.97%, enough for 33.33%; one fewer gives 31.45%, which is not. Your 16 outs sit 7 above it on the flop, at 56.98%. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? Count two cards, 56.98%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 34.04%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 33.33%, either number leads to a call. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 465 out of 1,081; hit chance: 56.98%. What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $100 / $300 = 33.33%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 47 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [16 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)