--- title: "Call or Fold: 16 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "16 outs on the flop hit 56.98% by the river. A third-pot bet needs 20.00%, so the verdict is call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 16 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop 16 outs on the flop hit 56.98% by the river. A third-pot bet needs 20.00%, so the verdict is call. The numbers favor a call. 16 outs on the flop reach 56.98%, and a third-pot bet asks only for 20.00%. - Verdict: Call (16 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 56.98% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +36.98 points (your chance minus the price) ## Comparing the draw with the bet The call is clearly worth making. 56.98% is your chance to hit, 20.00% is the price, and the gap between them is 36.98 points. No single everyday draw has exactly 16 outs, so a count like this usually combines draws. One card from the 47 unseen helps 34.04% of the time. ## A $100 pot, step by step - Starting pot: $100 - Size of the bet: $33.33 - Cost to call: $33.33 - Pot after your call: $166.67 - You can win on a hit: $133.33 - Net loss when you miss: $33.33 - Your chance to hit: 56.98% - Average value of the call: +$61.64 - Break-even equity: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: +36.9843 points - Outs at break-even: 4.91 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: +11.09 outs Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling gains $61.64 on average. The hit side averages $75.98, the miss side $14.34, and each dollar called returns +1.849. In odds, you face 0.75 : 1 against you and the pot pays 4 : 1. The correct pot to divide by includes your call. Without it the price reads 25.00% rather than 20.00%, and the margin reads +31.9843 points. With the starting pot alone it reads 33.33% and +23.6509 points. ## Reverse implied odds and your margin 5 outs is the line for a third-pot bet on the flop. Your 16 sit 11 outs above it, and the chance at the line is 20.35%. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 16 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +36.98 points | +$61.64 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +35.71 points | +$55.94 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +33.45 points | +$47.39 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +28.41 points | +$33.15 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | +6.98 points | +$4.66 | Call | Your margin is worth $108.17 in later losses. Past that, 3.25 times your call, folding would have been better. ## Next card or river 16 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 56.98% | +36.9843 points | +$61.64 | Call | | Next card only | 34.04% | +14.0426 points | +$23.40 | Call | Here the cards to come do not matter for the verdict. 34.04% on one card and 56.98% on two both say call at a price of 20.00%. ## Neighbors of this draw Move up or down a few outs and watch the verdict. Every extra out is worth about 2.78 points on the flop, and the price stays at 20.00%. Outs 14 to 18 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [14 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/14-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 51.16% | +31.16 points | Call | | [15 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 54.12% | +34.12 points | Call | | 16 outs, this page | 56.98% | +36.98 points | Call | | [17 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 59.76% | +39.76 points | Call | | [18 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 62.44% | +42.44 points | Call | ## The same draw against other bet sizes Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 16 outs on the flop and a bet of a different size. 16 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +40.32 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +36.98 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +34.76 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +31.98 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +28.41 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +26.98 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +23.65 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +21.27 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +19.48 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +16.98 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +14.13 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +12.54 points | Call | No bet size here outprices a 56.98% chance. The call works at all 12 sizes, since the highest price is 44.44%. ## Pages that use the same math - [16 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Should you call a third-pot bet with 16 outs on the flop? By the numbers it is a call. 16 outs on the flop hit 56.98% by the river, a third-pot bet needs 20.00%, and the margin is +36.98 points. That assumes you call the full $33.33 and no more betting follows, and it values the call at +$61.64 per $100 pot. ### What count of outs clears the price of a third-pot bet on the flop? A call starts to work at 5 outs: 20.35% to hit versus 20.00% needed. One out fewer drops the chance to 16.47%. You hold 16, which is 11 more than the minimum. ### Does it matter whether you count one card or two against a third-pot bet? Two cards cost one bet only if the hand really ends here, and then 56.98% applies. If you will face the turn bet as well, 34.04% applies. Versus 20.00%, both views give a call. ## How this is computed No sampling is involved. On the flop there are 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, and 465 of them contain no out, which leaves 56.98% for at least one out. The model is deliberately simple: call everything, win everything on a hit, face no more bets, deal from 47 equally likely unseen cards, and ignore an opponent's holding. With the price at $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%, later streets and shared outs are what change the real answer. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [16 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)