--- title: "Call or Fold: 17 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "36.96% chance against a 20.00% price: 17 outs on the turn facing a third-pot bet is a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 17 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn 36.96% chance against a 20.00% price: 17 outs on the turn facing a third-pot bet is a call. A third-pot bet on the turn is worth calling with 17 outs. You hit 36.96% of the time by the river and the call needs 20.00%. - Verdict: Call (17 outs, turn, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 36.96% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +16.96 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict 36.96% against 20.00%: the draw beats the price by 16.96 points. On this turn against a third-pot bet, that is a comfortable call. 17 out of 46 unseen cards is a combined count rather than one named draw, and one card hits 36.96% of the time. ## The same spot in dollars - Starting pot: $100 - Your opponent bets: $33.33 - Cost to call: $33.33 - Pot after your call: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - Net loss when you miss: $33.33 - How often you hit: 36.96% - Calling is worth, on average: +$28.26 - Break-even equity: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: +16.9565 points - Fractional outs at the price: 9.20 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +7.80 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $49.28 in and $21.01 out, so calling gains $28.26 on average at +0.848 per dollar called. Read as odds: 1.71 : 1 against you, 4 : 1 from the pot. A common slip is to divide the bet by the pot after the bet but before your call. That gives 25.00% instead of 20.00% and would put your margin at +11.9565 points. Using the bet over the starting pot, 33.33%, is further off and would put it at +3.6232 points. ## Where the call would flip Against this bet the draw needs 10 outs at the least. You have 7 outs more than that, so the call has some room. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 17 outs on the turn | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +16.96 points | +$28.26 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +15.68 points | +$24.57 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +13.43 points | +$19.02 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +8.39 points | +$9.78 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -13.04 points | -$8.70 | Fold | Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $76.47, or 2.29 times your call, after a hit and still break even. ## How the turn changes the draw 17 outs against a third-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 59.76% | +39.7595 points | +$66.27 | Call | | Turn, one card to come | 36.96% | +16.9565 points | +$28.26 | Call | One street later the draw is weaker. The same 17 outs hit 59.76% from the flop and 36.96% from the turn, a drop of 22.80 points, and the verdict on the flop would have been a call. ## The call as outs change A few outs either way, against a third-pot bet that needs 20.00%. The chance climbs about 2.17 points with each extra out. Outs 15 to 19 on the turn against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [15 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 32.61% | +12.61 points | Call | | 16 outs | 34.78% | +14.78 points | Call | | 17 outs, this page | 36.96% | +16.96 points | Call | | [18 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 39.13% | +19.13 points | Call | | 19 outs | 41.30% | +21.30 points | Call | ## Every bet size, one draw Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 17 outs on the turn and a bet of a different size. 17 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +20.29 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +16.96 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +14.73 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +11.96 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +8.39 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +6.96 points | Call | | pot-size | 33.33% | +3.62 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +1.24 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -0.54 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -3.04 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -5.90 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -7.49 points | Fold | Break-even for this draw is a bet of 1.42 times the pot ($141.67 on a $100 pot). Sizes below it call, sizes above it fold, and 8 of the 12 sizes are calls in the table. ## More on these numbers - [17 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 17 outs on the turn against a bet of a third of the pot? The answer is a call, with a margin of +16.96 points. 17 outs on the turn reach 36.96%; a bet of $33.33 into $100 needs 20.00%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$28.26 on average. ### What is the minimum number of outs for a third-pot bet on the turn? Look for 10 outs. That is the smallest count whose chance, 21.74%, reaches the 20.00% price; 9 manages 19.57%. You have 17, so you are 7 ahead of the minimum. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? The question belongs to the flop. On the turn, 17 outs among 46 cards give 36.96% either way, and against 20.00% that is a call by 16.96 points. ## How this is computed Everything is computed from the closed form. The river chance is 17 outs over 46 unseen cards, 36.96%. Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 46 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [17 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)