--- title: "Call or Fold: 18 Outs vs full pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Flop spot, 18 outs, pot-size bet: you hit 62.44% by the river against 33.33% needed. Verdict: call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 18 Outs vs full pot, Flop Flop spot, 18 outs, pot-size bet: you hit 62.44% by the river against 33.33% needed. Verdict: call. Call. With 18 outs on the flop, your 62.44% chance beats the 33.33% price of a pot-size bet. - Verdict: Call (18 outs, flop, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 62.44% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: +29.11 points (your chance minus the price) ## What the numbers say Pay the pot-size bet and you get a better deal than the draw needs. You need 33.33%, you have 62.44%, and the 29.11-point difference is large. You will reach 18 outs by adding up separate draws. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 38.30% of the time. ## The same spot in dollars - The pot before betting: $100 - The bet: $100 - Your call: $100 - Total pot after calling: $300 - Net gain when you hit: $200 - You lose on a miss: $100 - Your chance to hit: 62.44% - Average value of the call: +$87.33 - Equity needed to break even: 33.33% - Unrounded margin: +29.1088 points - Outs at break-even: 8.53 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +9.47 outs Assume the whole pot goes to you when you hit, the call is lost when you miss, and nothing more is bet. Calling then gains $87.33 on average: $124.88 from hits, minus $37.56 from misses, +0.873 per dollar called. Written as odds, the pot lays 2 : 1 while the draw is 0.6 : 1 against. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 33.33% into 50.00%, and the margin into +12.4422 points. ## What could go wrong before the call flips Against this bet the draw needs 9 outs at the least. You have 9 outs more than that, so the call has some room. Price of a pot-size call if you give money back after a hit, 18 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | +29.11 points | +$87.33 | Call | | $10 | 34.48% | +27.96 points | +$81.08 | Call | | $25 | 36.36% | +26.08 points | +$71.72 | Call | | $50 | 40.00% | +22.44 points | +$56.11 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | +12.44 points | +$24.88 | Call | Think of $139.85 as your safety room: the most you can give back after a hit, 1.40 times your call, with the call still level. ## Which chance to use 18 outs against a pot-size bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 62.44% | +29.1088 points | +$87.33 | Call | | Next card only | 38.30% | +4.9645 points | +$14.89 | Call | One card or two, the call comes out the same way. 38.30% on the next card and 62.44% by the river both sit on the call side of 33.33%. ## Nearby draws One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 18. Each out adds roughly 2.59 points against the 33.33% price. Outs 16 to 20 on the flop against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [16 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 56.98% | +23.65 points | Call | | [17 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 59.76% | +26.43 points | Call | | 18 outs, this page | 62.44% | +29.11 points | Call | | [19 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 65.03% | +31.70 points | Call | | [20 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 67.53% | +34.20 points | Call | ## How bet size moves the answer Keep 18 outs and change only the bet. The price rises from the smallest size to the largest, and the pot-size row is marked as this page. 18 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +45.78 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +42.44 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +40.22 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +37.44 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +33.87 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +32.44 points | Call | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | +29.11 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +26.73 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +24.94 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +22.44 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +19.59 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +18.00 points | Call | No bet size here outprices a 62.44% chance. The call works at all 12 sizes, since the highest price is 44.44%. ## Related pages - [18 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What is the right play with 18 outs when a pot-size bet comes on the flop? Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 62.44% to hit and 33.33% to break even. The first minus the second is +29.11 points, which makes this a call, and the call averages +$87.33 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows. ### How strong must a draw be to call a pot-size bet on the flop? Against 33.33%, the first count that works on the flop is 9, at 34.97%. At 8 the chance is 31.45%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 18 outs are 9 above. ### Which chance should you compare with the price, the next card or the river? Use the by-the-river chance, 62.44%, when no more betting follows, and the next-card chance, 38.30%, when you must pay again on the turn. Against the 33.33% price both give a call, so the choice does not change the play here. ## How this is computed Everything is computed from the closed form. Pairs without an out: 406 of 1,081. The rest, 62.44%, hold at least one out. What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $100 / $300 = 33.33%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 47 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [18 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)