--- title: "Call or Fold: 18 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "62.44% chance against a 28.57% price: 18 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet is a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 18 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop 62.44% chance against a 28.57% price: 18 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet is a call. Facing a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop with 18 outs, the call is correct: 62.44% to hit against 28.57% needed. - Verdict: Call (18 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 62.44% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: +33.87 points (your chance minus the price) ## The price of the call This is one of the easier spots. 18 outs on the flop reach 62.44% by the river, the two-thirds-pot bet asks for just 28.57%, and the 33.87-point margin favors the call. Few single draws land on exactly 18 outs, so add up each way to improve and check the total. One card hits 38.30% of the time here. ## Worked through on a $100 pot - Pot before the bet: $100 - Bet: $66.67 - You call: $66.67 - Final pot if you call: $233.33 - You can win on a hit: $166.67 - You lose on a miss: $66.67 - Chance to hit by the river: 62.44% - Expected value of a call: +$79.03 - Equity needed to break even: 28.57% - Exact margin over the price: +33.8708 points - Break-even count of outs: 7.20 outs - Outs above the price: +10.80 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling gains $79.03 on average. Hits bring in $104.07, misses cost $25.04, and the ratio is +1.185 per dollar called. Put as odds, the draw is 0.6 : 1 against, and the pot offers 2.5 : 1 for the call. One easy error is to use 40.00%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 28.57%, and the mistaken margin would be +22.4422 points. The bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, would claim -4.2245 points. ## Your cushion over the price The threshold is 8 outs, a chance of 31.45%. With 18 in hand you are 10 outs clear of it. Price of a two-thirds-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 18 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | +33.87 points | +$79.03 | Call | | $10 | 29.85% | +32.59 points | +$72.79 | Call | | $25 | 32.00% | +30.44 points | +$63.42 | Call | | $50 | 36.36% | +26.08 points | +$47.81 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | +12.44 points | +$16.59 | Call | Reverse implied odds are the risk here. A hit that costs you $126.57 later, 1.90 times your call, is where the call stops being worth it. ## Two views of the same draw 18 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 62.44% | +33.8708 points | +$79.03 | Call | | Next card only | 38.30% | +9.7264 points | +$22.70 | Call | Use either number and the verdict is a call. The next card is 38.30%, the full runout is 62.44%, and the price is 28.57%. ## How the answer moves with outs The table shows 18 outs and the draws around it on the flop, all against the same two-thirds-pot bet. Each extra out adds about 2.59 points to the chance here. Outs 16 to 20 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [16 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 56.98% | +28.41 points | Call | | [17 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 59.76% | +31.19 points | Call | | 18 outs, this page | 62.44% | +33.87 points | Call | | [19 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 65.03% | +36.46 points | Call | | [20 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 67.53% | +38.96 points | Call | ## The same draw against other bet sizes The same 18 outs on the flop meet a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked. 18 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +45.78 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +42.44 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +40.22 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +37.44 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +33.87 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +32.44 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +29.11 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +26.73 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +24.94 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +22.44 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +19.59 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +18.00 points | Call | Nothing in the list is too big to call: 18 outs reach 62.44% on the flop, above every price on the page. ## Keep exploring - [18 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### How should you respond to a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop when you hold 18 outs? The verdict is call. Your chance is 62.44% and the price is 28.57%, which leaves +33.87 points. On a $100 pot with a $66.67 bet, calling is worth +$79.03 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet. ### At what count of outs does a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop become a call? Against 28.57%, the first count that works on the flop is 8, at 31.45%. At 7 the chance is 27.84%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 18 outs are 10 above. ### Should you use the chance on the next card or by the river? Use the by-the-river chance, 62.44%, when no more betting follows, and the next-card chance, 38.30%, when you must pay again on the turn. Against the 28.57% price both give a call, so the choice does not change the play here. ## How this is computed Counting is exact: the pairs of unseen cards with no out number 406 out of 1,081, so hitting by the river has chance 62.44%. The model is deliberately simple: call everything, win everything on a hit, face no more bets, deal from 47 equally likely unseen cards, and ignore an opponent's holding. With the price at $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%, later streets and shared outs are what change the real answer. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [18 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)