--- title: "Call or Fold: 2 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Is a call right with 2 outs on the flop against a third-pot bet? Chance 8.42%, price 20.00%, so fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 2 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop Is a call right with 2 outs on the flop against a third-pot bet? Chance 8.42%, price 20.00%, so fold. 2 outs against a third-pot bet on the flop miss the price. You need 20.00% and you have 8.42%. - Verdict: Fold (2 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 8.42% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: -11.58 points (your chance minus the price) ## Chance against price The call is clearly not worth making. 8.42% is your chance to hit, 20.00% is the price, and the gap between them is 11.58 points. For a pocket pair that wants a set, 2 outs is the number to use, and one card hits 4.26% of the time out of 47 unseen. ## The same spot in dollars - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - Size of the bet: $33.33 - You call: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - You lose on a miss: $33.33 - Probability of a hit: 8.42% - Expected value of calling: -$19.30 - Equity needed to break even: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: -11.5819 points - Outs at break-even: 4.91 outs - Margin measured in outs: -2.91 outs Assume the whole pot goes to you when you hit, the call is lost when you miss, and nothing more is bet. Calling then loses $19.30 on average: $11.22 from hits, minus $30.53 from misses, -0.579 per dollar called. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 10.88 : 1, and the pot lays 4 : 1 on a call. Skipping your own call in the pot gives a price of 25.00% where 20.00% is correct, and a margin of -16.5819 points instead of -11.58 points. The starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of -24.9152 points, which is wrong by even more. ## Closing the gap with future bets Your chance is 8.42%, so a hit has to pay $395.97 in all, or $229.30 more than the pot you can see. That extra is 6.88 times what you call. Price of a third-pot call with future winnings added, 2 outs on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | -11.58 points | -$19.30 | Fold | | $50 | 15.38% | -6.97 points | -$15.09 | Fold | | $100 | 12.50% | -4.08 points | -$10.88 | Fold | | $250 | 8.00% | +0.42 points | +$1.74 | Call | | $500 | 5.00% | +3.42 points | +$22.79 | Call | If the draw had 3 more outs, for 5 in all, the chance would be 20.35% and the call would clear 20.00%. ## Two cards to come, or just one 2 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 8.42% | -11.5819 points | -$19.30 | Fold | | Next card only | 4.26% | -15.7447 points | -$26.24 | Fold | No conflict here: 8.42% for two cards and 4.26% for one both give a fold against the 20.00% price, so you need not decide which view applies. ## A few outs either way Move up or down a few outs and watch the verdict. Every extra out is worth about 4.07 points on the flop, and the price stays at 20.00%. Outs 1 to 5 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [1 out](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 4.26% | -15.74 points | Fold | | 2 outs, this page | 8.42% | -11.58 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 12.49% | -7.51 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 16.47% | -3.53 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.35% | +0.35 points | Call | ## Every bet size, one draw One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 2 outs on the flop. 2 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -8.25 points | Fold | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | -11.58 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -13.80 points | Fold | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -16.58 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -20.15 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -21.58 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -24.92 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -27.30 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -29.08 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -31.58 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -34.44 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -36.03 points | Fold | No bet size in the table is a call. The smallest, quarter-pot, needs 16.67% against your 8.42%, and the largest bet this draw could call is only 0.10 times the pot ($10.12 on a $100 pot). ## Go deeper - [2 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Should you call a third-pot bet with 2 outs on the flop? Verdict: fold. A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and you have 8.42%, a margin of -11.58 points. For a $33.33 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is -$19.30. ### How many outs make a call correct against a third of the pot on the flop? The threshold is 5 outs. It gives 20.35%, clearing 20.00%, whereas 4 gives only 16.47%. Holding 2 puts you 3 below it, with a chance of 8.42%. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? Pick the number that matches the street plan: 8.42% for seeing both cards for one bet, 4.26% for paying card by card. Both face 20.00%, and the verdict is fold either way. ## How this is computed The number is exact rather than estimated. 990 of the 1,081 pairs that could come are blanks, which leaves 8.42% for a hit. What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 47 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [2 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)