--- title: "Call or Fold: 20 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Call or fold with 20 outs on the flop against a third-pot bet: 67.53% to hit, 20.00% needed, call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 20 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop Call or fold with 20 outs on the flop against a third-pot bet: 67.53% to hit, 20.00% needed, call. The numbers favor a call. 20 outs on the flop reach 67.53%, and a third-pot bet asks only for 20.00%. - Verdict: Call (20 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 67.53% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +47.53 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict Pay the third-pot bet and you get a better deal than the draw needs. You need 20.00%, you have 67.53%, and the 47.53-point difference is large. 20 out of 47 unseen cards is a combined count rather than one named draw, and one card hits 42.55% of the time. ## A $100 pot, step by step - The pot before betting: $100 - The bet: $33.33 - You call: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - Loss on a miss: $33.33 - Probability of a hit: 67.53% - Expected value of calling: +$79.22 - Equity needed to break even: 20.00% - Margin, to four decimals: +47.5301 points - Fractional outs at the price: 4.91 outs - Outs above the price: +15.09 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling gains $79.22 on average. Hits bring in $90.04, misses cost $10.82, and the ratio is +2.377 per dollar called. Put as odds, the draw is 0.48 : 1 against, and the pot offers 4 : 1 for the call. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 20.00% into 25.00%, and the margin into +42.5301 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of +34.1967 points, further from the truth. ## Your cushion over the price Against this bet the draw needs 5 outs at the least. You have 15 outs more than that, so the call has some room. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 20 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +47.53 points | +$79.22 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +46.25 points | +$72.46 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +44.00 points | +$62.33 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +38.96 points | +$45.45 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | +17.53 points | +$11.69 | Call | Your margin is worth $117.31 in later losses. Past that, 3.52 times your call, folding would have been better. ## Two cards to come, or just one 20 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 67.53% | +47.5301 points | +$79.22 | Call | | Next card only | 42.55% | +22.5532 points | +$37.59 | Call | The two chances agree on the verdict. 67.53% by the river and 42.55% on one card each lead to a call against 20.00%. ## Neighbors of this draw Remove a few outs and watch the verdict. Every out is worth about 2.50 points on the flop, and the price stays at 20.00%. Outs 16 to 20 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [16 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/16-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 56.98% | +36.98 points | Call | | [17 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 59.76% | +39.76 points | Call | | [18 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/18-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 62.44% | +42.44 points | Call | | [19 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 65.03% | +45.03 points | Call | | 20 outs, this page | 67.53% | +47.53 points | Call | ## Every bet size, one draw One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 20 outs on the flop. 20 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +50.86 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +47.53 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +45.31 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +42.53 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +38.96 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +37.53 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/20-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +34.20 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +31.82 points | Call | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +30.03 points | Call | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | +27.53 points | Call | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | +24.67 points | Call | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | +23.09 points | Call | Your chance is high enough that any bet in the table is a call. All 12 sizes clear with 67.53%. ## Next pages to read - [20 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What is the right play with 20 outs when a third-pot bet comes on the flop? Your chance, 67.53%, set against the 20.00% price gives +47.53 points and a call. With a $100 pot, a $33.33 call and no more betting, the average value of the call is +$79.22. ### What count of outs clears the price of a third-pot bet on the flop? 5 outs is the line. At 5 the chance is 20.35%, enough for 20.00%; one fewer gives 16.47%, which is not. Your 20 outs sit 15 above it on the flop, at 67.53%. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? Two cards cost one bet only if the hand really ends here, and then 67.53% applies. If you will face the turn bet as well, 42.55% applies. Versus 20.00%, both views give a call. ## How this is computed The hit chance comes straight from combinations. Out of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, 351 miss every out, so you hit 67.53% of the time. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($33.33 into $166.67, or 20.00%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 47 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [20 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)