--- title: "Call or Fold: 3 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "3 outs on the flop hit 12.49% by the river. A two-thirds-pot bet needs 28.57%, so the verdict is fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 3 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop 3 outs on the flop hit 12.49% by the river. A two-thirds-pot bet needs 28.57%, so the verdict is fold. 3 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop miss the price. You need 28.57% and you have 12.49%. - Verdict: Fold (3 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 12.49% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -16.08 points (your chance minus the price) ## Your chance and the price The call is clearly not worth making. 12.49% is your chance to hit, 28.57% is the price, and the gap between them is 16.08 points. Holding one overcard to top pair gives you exactly 3 outs, out of 47 unseen cards. One card hits 6.38% of the time. ## Putting dollars on the call - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - Your opponent bets: $66.67 - Your call: $66.67 - Pot with your call in: $233.33 - Gain on a hit: $166.67 - Net loss when you miss: $66.67 - Probability of a hit: 12.49% - Expected value of calling: -$37.53 - Equity the call needs: 28.57% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -16.0830 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 7.20 outs - Outs above the price: -4.20 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $20.81 in and $58.34 out, so calling loses $37.53 on average at -0.563 per dollar called. Stated as odds, you are 7.01 : 1 against hitting and the call gets 2.5 : 1 from the pot. The correct pot to divide by includes your call. Without it the price reads 40.00% rather than 28.57%, and the margin reads -27.5116 points. With the starting pot alone it reads 66.67% and -54.1782 points. ## What it would take to call With 12.49% to hit, break-even sits $300.49 higher than the pot shows. Put another way, later bets must add 4.51 times your call. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 3 outs on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -16.08 points | -$37.53 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -11.04 points | -$31.28 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | -7.51 points | -$25.04 | Fold | | $250 | 13.79% | -1.30 points | -$6.31 | Fold | | $500 | 9.09% | +3.40 points | +$24.92 | Call | Another way to close the gap is more outs. The fewest outs that call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is 8; with 8 outs you would hit 31.45%. That is 5 more outs than the 3 you hold. ## One card or two 3 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 12.49% | -16.0830 points | -$37.53 | Fold | | Next card only | 6.38% | -22.1884 points | -$51.77 | Fold | Both views point the same way. By the river you hit 12.49%, on the next card 6.38%, and the price is 28.57%, so the fold holds whichever number applies. ## Neighbors of this draw Here are the neighbors of 3 outs, priced against the same 28.57%. One more out lifts your chance by about 3.98 points. Outs 1 to 5 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [1 out](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 4.26% | -24.32 points | Fold | | [2 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 8.42% | -20.15 points | Fold | | 3 outs, this page | 12.49% | -16.08 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 16.47% | -12.11 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 20.35% | -8.22 points | Fold | ## Where the bet size flips the call Bigger bets ask for more equity while your chance stays at 12.49%. Here is every bet size against the same draw, with the row for this page marked. 3 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -4.18 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -7.51 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -9.73 points | Fold | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -12.51 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -16.08 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -17.51 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -20.84 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -23.23 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -25.01 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -27.51 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -30.37 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -31.96 points | Fold | Break-even for this draw is a bet of 0.17 times the pot ($16.65 on a $100 pot). Every size in the table is larger than that, so each row is a fold. ## Go deeper - [3 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Does the math favor calling a two-thirds-pot bet with 3 outs on the flop? By the numbers it is a fold. 3 outs on the flop hit 12.49% by the river, a two-thirds-pot bet needs 28.57%, and the margin is -16.08 points. That assumes you call the full $66.67 and no more betting follows, and it values the call at -$37.53 per $100 pot. ### How many outs do you need to call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop? Against 28.57%, the first count that works on the flop is 8, at 31.45%. At 7 the chance is 27.84%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 3 outs are 5 below. ### Which hit chance fits a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop? The river figure of 12.49% assumes no further betting; the next-card figure of 6.38% assumes you pay again on the turn. Against 28.57%, both say fold, so you can use either. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 946 out of 1,081; hit chance: 12.49%. The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 28.57%, from $66.67 into $233.33, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 47 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [3 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)