--- title: "Call or Fold: 3 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Turn spot, 3 outs, two-thirds-pot bet: you hit 6.52% by the river against 28.57% needed. Verdict: fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 3 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn Turn spot, 3 outs, two-thirds-pot bet: you hit 6.52% by the river against 28.57% needed. Verdict: fold. 3 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn miss the price. You need 28.57% and you have 6.52%. - Verdict: Fold (3 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 6.52% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -22.05 points (your chance minus the price) ## How the verdict is reached 6.52% against 28.57%: the draw trails the price by 22.05 points. On this turn against a two-thirds-pot bet, that is an easy fold. Count one overcard to top pair and you land on 3 outs. With 46 cards unseen, the next card helps 6.52% of the time. ## Counting the chips on a $100 pot - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - Your opponent bets: $66.67 - Chips you put in: $66.67 - Final pot if you call: $233.33 - What a hit wins: $166.67 - You lose on a miss: $66.67 - Probability of a hit: 6.52% - Calling is worth, on average: -$51.45 - Equity the call needs: 28.57% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -22.0497 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 13.14 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: -10.14 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling loses $51.45 on average. Hits bring in $10.87, misses cost $62.32, and the ratio is -0.772 per dollar called. Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 14.33 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2.5 : 1. A common slip is to divide the bet by the pot after the bet but before your call. That gives 40.00% instead of 28.57% and would put your margin at -33.4783 points. Using the bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, is further off and would put it at -60.1449 points. ## Closing the gap with future bets With 6.52% to hit, break-even sits $788.89 higher than the pot shows. Put another way, later bets must add 11.83 times your call. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 3 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -22.05 points | -$51.45 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -17.01 points | -$48.19 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | -13.48 points | -$44.93 | Fold | | $250 | 13.79% | -7.27 points | -$35.14 | Fold | | $500 | 9.09% | -2.57 points | -$18.84 | Fold | 14 outs is the threshold against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn, a chance of 30.43%. That is 11 more than your 3. ## Flop and turn compared 3 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 12.49% | -16.0830 points | -$37.53 | Fold | | Turn, one card to come | 6.52% | -22.0497 points | -$51.45 | Fold | Compare the streets. With two cards left, 3 outs hit 12.49% (a fold); with one card left they hit 6.52% (a fold). The difference is 5.97 points. ## Neighbors of this draw One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 3. Each out adds roughly 2.17 points against the 28.57% price. Outs 1 to 5 on the turn against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [1 out](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 2.17% | -26.40 points | Fold | | 2 outs | 4.35% | -24.22 points | Fold | | 3 outs, this page | 6.52% | -22.05 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 8.70% | -19.88 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 10.87% | -17.70 points | Fold | ## The same draw against other bet sizes Bigger bets ask for more equity while your chance stays at 6.52%. Here is every bet size against the same draw, with the row for this page marked. 3 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -10.14 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -13.48 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -15.70 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -18.48 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -22.05 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -23.48 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -26.81 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -29.19 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -30.98 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -33.48 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -36.34 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -37.92 points | Fold | 3 outs stop paying at 0.07 times the pot ($7.50 on a $100 pot), below the smallest size listed. The call fails at all 12 bet sizes. ## More on these numbers - [3 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What is the right play with 3 outs when a two-thirds-pot bet comes on the turn? Math says fold. The two-thirds-pot bet of $66.67 needs 28.57% equity, 3 outs on the turn give 6.52%, and the margin is -22.05 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth -$51.45 on average. ### How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of two thirds of the pot on the turn? To call a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn you want 14 outs or more. 14 reach 30.43% and 13 reach 28.26%, with 28.57% as the bar. Your 3 outs are 11 under. ### Which hit chance fits a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn? They are one number here. With a single card to come, 6.52% is both the next-card chance and the by-the-river chance, and it gives a fold against 28.57%, a margin of -22.05 points. ## How this is computed The chance to hit is the exact closed form, with no simulation. From the turn, 3 of the 46 unseen cards are outs, so the chance is 3 / 46, which is 6.52%. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($66.67 into $233.33, or 28.57%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 46 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [3 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)