--- title: "Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs full pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "4 outs on the flop hit 16.47% by the river. A pot-size bet needs 33.33%, so the verdict is fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs full pot, Flop 4 outs on the flop hit 16.47% by the river. A pot-size bet needs 33.33%, so the verdict is fold. The numbers favor a fold. 4 outs on the flop reach 16.47%, and a pot-size bet asks for 33.33%. - Verdict: Fold (4 outs, flop, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 16.47% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: -16.87 points (your chance minus the price) ## The price of the call 16.47% against 33.33%: the draw trails the price by 16.87 points. On this flop against a pot-size bet, that is an easy fold. If you are on a gutshot straight draw, this is your count: 4 outs among 47 unseen cards, or 8.51% on a single card. ## A $100 pot, step by step - The pot before betting: $100 - The bet: $100 - Your call: $100 - Final pot if you call: $300 - What a hit wins: $200 - Loss on a miss: $100 - Chance to hit by the river: 16.47% - Expected value of calling: -$50.60 - Equity the call needs: 33.33% - Margin, to four decimals: -16.8671 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 8.53 outs - Outs above the price: -4.53 outs Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling loses $50.60 on average. The hit side averages $32.93, the miss side $83.53, and each dollar called returns -0.506. Put as odds, the draw is 5.07 : 1 against, and the pot offers 2 : 1 for the call. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 33.33% into 50.00%, and the margin into -33.5338 points. ## The extra winnings a call would need Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $307.30 more on later streets after hitting, which is 3.07 times the call you make. Price of a pot-size call with future winnings added, 4 outs on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | -16.87 points | -$50.60 | Fold | | $50 | 28.57% | -12.11 points | -$42.37 | Fold | | $100 | 25.00% | -8.53 points | -$34.14 | Fold | | $250 | 18.18% | -1.72 points | -$9.44 | Fold | | $500 | 12.50% | +3.97 points | +$31.73 | Call | The smallest count that pays for a pot-size bet is 9 outs at 34.97%. You hold 4, which is 5 outs fewer. ## By the river or next card 4 outs against a pot-size bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 16.47% | -16.8671 points | -$50.60 | Fold | | Next card only | 8.51% | -24.8227 points | -$74.47 | Fold | The two chances agree on the verdict. 16.47% by the river and 8.51% on one card each lead to a fold against 33.33%. ## Nearby draws Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 33.33%, and each out moves the chance about 3.89 points. Outs 2 to 6 on the flop against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 8.42% | -24.92 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 12.49% | -20.84 points | Fold | | 4 outs, this page | 16.47% | -16.87 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 20.35% | -12.98 points | Fold | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 24.14% | -9.19 points | Fold | ## Other bet sizes for this draw One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 4 outs on the flop. 4 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -0.20 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -3.53 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -5.76 points | Fold | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -8.53 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -12.11 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -13.53 points | Fold | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | -16.87 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -19.25 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -21.03 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -23.53 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -26.39 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -27.98 points | Fold | Even the smallest bet on the list outprices 4 outs on the flop. The break-even bet is 0.25 times the pot ($24.55 on a $100 pot), and every one of the 12 sizes is above it. ## Next pages to read - [4 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What does the math say about calling a bet of the full pot with 4 outs on the flop? Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 16.47% to hit and 33.33% to break even. The first minus the second is -16.87 points, which makes this a fold, and the call averages -$50.60 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows. ### How strong must a draw be to call a pot-size bet on the flop? 9 outs is the line. At 9 the chance is 34.97%, enough for 33.33%; one fewer gives 31.45%, which is not. Your 4 outs sit 5 below it on the flop, at 16.47%. ### Is the by-the-river chance the right one to use on the flop? The river figure of 16.47% assumes no further betting; the next-card figure of 8.51% assumes you pay again on the turn. Against 33.33%, both say fold, so you can use either. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 903 out of 1,081; hit chance: 16.47%. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($100 into $300, or 33.33%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 47 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [4 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)