--- title: "Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "The exact answer for 4 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet: 16.47% to hit, 28.57% to break even, fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop The exact answer for 4 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet: 16.47% to hit, 28.57% to break even, fold. Facing a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop with 4 outs, the call does not pay: 16.47% to hit against 28.57% needed. - Verdict: Fold (4 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 16.47% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -12.11 points (your chance minus the price) ## Comparing the draw with the bet With 4 outs on the flop you hit 16.47% by the river, and a two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57%. A 12.11-point shortfall makes this a clear fold. 4 out of 47 unseen cards is the shape of a gutshot straight draw, and a single card hits 8.51% of the time. ## The arithmetic of this call - Starting pot: $100 - The bet: $66.67 - Chips you put in: $66.67 - Pot with your call in: $233.33 - You can win on a hit: $166.67 - Net loss when you miss: $66.67 - How often you hit: 16.47% - Calling is worth, on average: -$28.25 - Break-even equity: 28.57% - Unrounded margin: -12.1052 points - Fractional outs at the price: 7.20 outs - Margin measured in outs: -3.20 outs Expected value says the same in dollars. Win the whole pot on a hit, lose your call on a miss, add no more betting, and the call loses $28.25 on average: $27.44 in, $55.69 out, -0.424 per dollar called. Put as odds, the draw is 5.07 : 1 against, and the pot offers 2.5 : 1 for the call. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 28.57% into 40.00%, and the margin into -23.5338 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 66.67% and a margin of -50.2004 points, further from the truth. ## The price with implied odds Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $171.54 more on later streets after hitting, which is 2.57 times the call you make. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 4 outs on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -12.11 points | -$28.25 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -7.06 points | -$20.01 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | -3.53 points | -$11.78 | Fold | | $250 | 13.79% | +2.67 points | +$12.92 | Call | | $500 | 9.09% | +7.38 points | +$54.09 | Call | If the draw had 4 more outs, for 8 in all, the chance would be 31.45% and the call would clear 28.57%. ## Pricing one card at a time 4 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 16.47% | -12.1052 points | -$28.25 | Fold | | Next card only | 8.51% | -20.0608 points | -$46.81 | Fold | Here the cards to come do not matter for the verdict. 8.51% on one card and 16.47% on two both say fold at a price of 28.57%. ## The call as outs change A few outs either way, against a two-thirds-pot bet that needs 28.57%. The chance climbs about 3.89 points with each extra out. Outs 2 to 6 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 8.42% | -20.15 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 12.49% | -16.08 points | Fold | | 4 outs, this page | 16.47% | -12.11 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 20.35% | -8.22 points | Fold | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 24.14% | -4.43 points | Fold | ## Every bet size, one draw Bet size sets the price, so the verdict changes as you scan the table. The two-thirds-pot bet of this page is marked in the first column. 4 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -0.20 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -3.53 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -5.76 points | Fold | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -8.53 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -12.11 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -13.53 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -16.87 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -19.25 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -21.03 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -23.53 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -26.39 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -27.98 points | Fold | A bet larger than 0.25 times the pot ($24.55 on a $100 pot) asks for more than 16.47%, and every size on this page is larger. The table is folds from top to bottom. ## Pages that use the same math - [4 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What does the math say about calling a bet of two thirds of the pot with 4 outs on the flop? The verdict is fold. Your chance is 16.47% and the price is 28.57%, which leaves -12.11 points. On a $100 pot with a $66.67 bet, calling is worth -$28.25 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet. ### How many outs make a call correct against two thirds of the pot on the flop? The fewest outs that call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is 8. With 8 outs you hit 31.45%, which reaches the 28.57% price, while 7 outs hit only 27.84%. You have 4, so you are 4 below that count. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? Both figures are right for their own situation: 16.47% with no more betting, 8.51% when the turn brings a bet. Facing 28.57%, each one gives a fold. ## How this is computed Everything is computed from the closed form. Pairs without an out: 903 of 1,081. The rest, 16.47%, hold at least one out. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($66.67 into $233.33, or 28.57%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 47 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [4 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)