--- title: "Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 4 outs on the turn give 8.70%, a margin of -11.30 points and a fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 4 outs on the turn give 8.70%, a margin of -11.30 points and a fold. Here is why a call fails on the turn: a third-pot bet needs 20.00% equity, and 4 outs supply only 8.70%. - Verdict: Fold (4 outs, turn, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 8.70% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: -11.30 points (your chance minus the price) ## Comparing the draw with the bet With 4 outs on the turn you hit 8.70% by the river, and a third-pot bet asks for 20.00%. A 11.30-point shortfall makes this a clear fold. For a gutshot straight draw, 4 outs is the number to use, and one card hits 8.70% of the time out of 46 unseen. ## The arithmetic of this call - Starting pot: $100 - Your opponent bets: $33.33 - Cost to call: $33.33 - Pot after your call: $166.67 - You can win on a hit: $133.33 - Net loss when you miss: $33.33 - Your chance to hit: 8.70% - Calling is worth, on average: -$18.84 - Price of the call: 20.00% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -11.3043 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 9.20 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: -5.20 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $11.59 in and $30.43 out, so calling loses $18.84 on average at -0.565 per dollar called. Put as odds, the draw is 10.5 : 1 against, and the pot offers 4 : 1 for the call. Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 25.00%, when the real price is 20.00%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -16.3043 points; on 33.33%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -24.6377 points. ## What implied odds would have to do Your chance is 8.70%, so a hit has to pay $383.33 in all, or $216.67 more than the pot you can see. That extra is 6.50 times what you call. Price of a third-pot call with future winnings added, 4 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | -11.30 points | -$18.84 | Fold | | $50 | 15.38% | -6.69 points | -$14.49 | Fold | | $100 | 12.50% | -3.80 points | -$10.14 | Fold | | $250 | 8.00% | +0.70 points | +$2.90 | Call | | $500 | 5.00% | +3.70 points | +$24.64 | Call | Outs are the other lever. At 10 outs you reach 21.74% by the river, enough for a third-pot bet, and you are 6 outs away. ## How the turn changes the draw 4 outs against a third-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 16.47% | -3.5338 points | -$5.89 | Fold | | Turn, one card to come | 8.70% | -11.3043 points | -$18.84 | Fold | You have lost a card to come. From the flop 4 outs reach 16.47%; from the turn they reach 8.70%, 7.77 points less. Against 20.00% the flop version is a fold. ## One out more or less A few outs either way, against a third-pot bet that needs 20.00%. The chance climbs about 2.17 points with each extra out. Outs 2 to 6 on the turn against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 outs | 4.35% | -15.65 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 6.52% | -13.48 points | Fold | | 4 outs, this page | 8.70% | -11.30 points | Fold | | 5 outs | 10.87% | -9.13 points | Fold | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 13.04% | -6.96 points | Fold | ## Bigger and smaller bets How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 4 outs stay at 8.70%. 4 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -7.97 points | Fold | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | -11.30 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -13.53 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -16.30 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -19.88 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -21.30 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -24.64 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -27.02 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -28.80 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -31.30 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -34.16 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -35.75 points | Fold | 4 outs stop paying at 0.11 times the pot ($10.53 on a $100 pot), below the smallest size listed. The call fails at all 12 bet sizes. ## Related pages - [4 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What does the math say about calling a bet of a third of the pot with 4 outs on the turn? Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 8.70% to hit and 20.00% to break even. The first minus the second is -11.30 points, which makes this a fold, and the call averages -$18.84 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows. ### How many outs make a call correct against a third of the pot on the turn? Against 20.00%, the first count that works on the turn is 10, at 21.74%. At 9 the chance is 19.57%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 4 outs are 6 below. ### Which hit chance fits a third-pot bet on the turn? They are one number here. With a single card to come, 8.70% is both the next-card chance and the by-the-river chance, and it gives a fold against 20.00%, a margin of -11.30 points. ## How this is computed Everything is computed from the closed form. The river chance is 4 outs over 46 unseen cards, 8.70%. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $33.33 of a $166.67 pot (20.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 46 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [4 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)