--- title: "Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Is a call right with 4 outs on the turn against a two-thirds-pot bet? Chance 8.70%, price 28.57%, so fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 4 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn Is a call right with 4 outs on the turn against a two-thirds-pot bet? Chance 8.70%, price 28.57%, so fold. 4 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn miss the price. You need 28.57% and you have 8.70%. - Verdict: Fold (4 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 8.70% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -19.88 points (your chance minus the price) ## Chance against price Pay the two-thirds-pot bet and you pay more than the draw is worth. You need 28.57%, you have 8.70%, and the 19.88-point shortfall is large. For a gutshot straight draw, 4 outs is the number to use, and one card hits 8.70% of the time out of 46 unseen. ## The arithmetic of this call - The pot before betting: $100 - The bet: $66.67 - You call: $66.67 - Final pot if you call: $233.33 - Gain on a hit: $166.67 - What a miss costs: $66.67 - Your chance to hit: 8.70% - Expected value of a call: -$46.38 - Break-even equity: 28.57% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -19.8758 points - Outs at break-even: 13.14 outs - Margin measured in outs: -9.14 outs With no more betting, the whole pot won on a hit and the call lost on a miss, the call loses $46.38 on average. The hit side averages $14.49, the miss side $60.87, and each dollar called returns -0.696. Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 10.5 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2.5 : 1. A common slip is to divide the bet by the pot after the bet but before your call. That gives 40.00% instead of 28.57% and would put your margin at -31.3043 points. Using the bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, is further off and would put it at -57.9710 points. ## The extra winnings a call would need With 8.70% to hit, break-even sits $533.33 higher than the pot shows. Put another way, later bets must add 8.00 times your call. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 4 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -19.88 points | -$46.38 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -14.83 points | -$42.03 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | -11.30 points | -$37.68 | Fold | | $250 | 13.79% | -5.10 points | -$24.64 | Fold | | $500 | 9.09% | -0.40 points | -$2.90 | Fold | 14 outs is the threshold against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn, a chance of 30.43%. That is 10 more than your 4. ## The cost of waiting a street 4 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 16.47% | -12.1052 points | -$28.25 | Fold | | Turn, one card to come | 8.70% | -19.8758 points | -$46.38 | Fold | Compare the streets. With two cards left, 4 outs hit 16.47% (a fold); with one card left they hit 8.70% (a fold). The difference is 7.77 points. ## A few outs either way Same bet, same street, different draws. The row for 4 outs is marked, and every out is worth about 2.17 points. Outs 2 to 6 on the turn against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 outs | 4.35% | -24.22 points | Fold | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 6.52% | -22.05 points | Fold | | 4 outs, this page | 8.70% | -19.88 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 10.87% | -17.70 points | Fold | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 13.04% | -15.53 points | Fold | ## Bigger and smaller bets Bet size sets the price, so the verdict changes as you scan the table. The two-thirds-pot bet of this page is marked in the first column. 4 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -7.97 points | Fold | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -11.30 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -13.53 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -16.30 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -19.88 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -21.30 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -24.64 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -27.02 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -28.80 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -31.30 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -34.16 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -35.75 points | Fold | Even the smallest bet on the list outprices 4 outs on the turn. The break-even bet is 0.11 times the pot ($10.53 on a $100 pot), and every one of the 12 sizes is above it. ## Keep exploring - [4 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Is a call correct with 4 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn? Compare 8.70%, your chance to hit by the river, with 28.57%, the equity a two-thirds-pot bet needs. The gap is -19.88 points, so this is a fold. In dollars on a $100 pot, the call averages -$46.38 when no more betting follows. ### How strong must a draw be to call a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn? The fewest outs that call a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn is 14. With 14 outs you hit 30.43%, which reaches the 28.57% price, while 13 outs hit only 28.26%. You have 4, so you are 10 below that count. ### One card or two: which number belongs next to the 28.57% price? Count the river card only. 8.70% is the full chance and the price is 28.57%, so the verdict is fold with a gap of 19.88 points. Nothing else is left to come. ## How this is computed The hit chance comes straight from combinations. With one card left and 4 outs in 46 cards, you hit 8.70% of the time. What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 46 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [4 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)