--- title: "Call or Fold: 5 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Flop spot, 5 outs, third-pot bet: you hit 20.35% by the river against 20.00% needed. Verdict: call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 5 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop Flop spot, 5 outs, third-pot bet: you hit 20.35% by the river against 20.00% needed. Verdict: call. On the flop, 5 outs are enough to call a third-pot bet. The price is 20.00% and the chance is 20.35%. - Verdict: Call (5 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 20.35% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +0.35 points (your chance minus the price) ## Comparing the draw with the bet You are only 0.35 points above break-even here: 20.35% to hit, 20.00% to call. It is a thin call, and it depends on every out being clean. You will reach 5 outs by adding up separate draws. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 10.64% of the time. ## A $100 pot, step by step - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - Bet: $33.33 - Your call: $33.33 - Pot with your call in: $166.67 - You can win on a hit: $133.33 - Net loss when you miss: $33.33 - Probability of a hit: 20.35% - Average value of the call: +$0.59 - Equity needed to break even: 20.00% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: +0.3515 points - Break-even count of outs: 4.91 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +0.09 outs Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling gains $0.59 on average. The hit side averages $27.14, the miss side $26.55, and each dollar called returns +0.018. Stated as odds, you are 3.91 : 1 against hitting and the call gets 4 : 1 from the pot. The price is 20.00% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 25.00%, a margin of -4.6485 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 33.33% puts the margin at -12.9818 points. ## Where the call would flip With 5 outs you sit exactly at the minimum of 5 that a third-pot bet requires on the flop, so there is no room to give up an out. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 5 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +0.35 points | +$0.59 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | -0.93 points | -$1.45 | Fold | | $25 | 23.53% | -3.18 points | -$4.50 | Fold | | $50 | 28.57% | -8.22 points | -$9.59 | Fold | | $100 | 50.00% | -29.65 points | -$19.77 | Fold | The call keeps its edge until you lose $2.88 on later streets after hitting. That is 0.09 times the $33.33 you pay now. ## Two views of the same draw 5 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 20.35% | +0.3515 points | +$0.59 | Call | | Next card only | 10.64% | -9.3617 points | -$15.60 | Fold | The two figures land on opposite sides, or on the line. 20.35% gives a call and 10.64% gives a fold against 20.00%, so check whether more betting is likely before you rely on the river number. ## Neighbors of this draw Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 20.00%, and each out moves the chance about 3.79 points. Outs 3 to 7 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [3 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 12.49% | -7.51 points | Fold | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 16.47% | -3.53 points | Fold | | 5 outs, this page | 20.35% | +0.35 points | Call | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 24.14% | +4.14 points | Call | | 7 outs | 27.84% | +7.84 points | Call | ## The same draw against other bet sizes The same 5 outs on the flop meet a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked. 5 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +3.68 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +0.35 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -1.87 points | Fold | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -4.65 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -8.22 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -9.65 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -12.98 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -15.36 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -17.15 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -19.65 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -22.51 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -24.09 points | Fold | Break-even for this draw is a bet of 0.34 times the pot ($34.32 on a $100 pot). Sizes below it call, sizes above it fold, and 2 of the 12 sizes are calls in the table. ## Where to look next - [5 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What is the right play with 5 outs when a third-pot bet comes on the flop? Compare 20.35%, your chance to hit by the river, with 20.00%, the equity a third-pot bet needs. The gap is +0.35 points, so this is a call. In dollars on a $100 pot, the call averages +$0.59 when no more betting follows. ### How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of a third of the pot on the flop? You need at least 5 outs against a third-pot bet on the flop. That count hits 20.35% against 20.00% needed, and 4 falls short at 16.47%. With 5 you are exactly at the minimum. ### When is the next-card chance the better comparison? Count two cards, 20.35%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 10.64%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 20.00%, the two numbers give a call and a fold. ## How this is computed Everything is computed from the closed form. Pairs without an out: 861 of 1,081. The rest, 20.35%, hold at least one out. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $33.33 of a $166.67 pot (20.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [5 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)