--- title: "Call or Fold: 6 Outs vs full pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Flop spot, 6 outs, pot-size bet: you hit 24.14% by the river against 33.33% needed. Verdict: fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 6 Outs vs full pot, Flop Flop spot, 6 outs, pot-size bet: you hit 24.14% by the river against 33.33% needed. Verdict: fold. A pot-size bet on the flop is too expensive to call with 6 outs. You hit 24.14% of the time by the river and the call needs 33.33%. - Verdict: Fold (6 outs, flop, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 24.14% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: -9.19 points (your chance minus the price) ## Comparing the draw with the bet Your draw is priced at 33.33% and it arrives just 24.14% of the time. A gap of 9.19 points is large, and later bets would have to be large to make up for it. Holding two overcards gives you exactly 6 outs, out of 47 unseen cards. One card hits 12.77% of the time. ## Counting the chips on a $100 pot - Starting pot: $100 - Your opponent bets: $100 - You call: $100 - Total pot after calling: $300 - Net gain when you hit: $200 - You lose on a miss: $100 - Your chance to hit: 24.14% - Expected value of a call: -$27.57 - Break-even equity: 33.33% - Unrounded margin: -9.1890 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 8.53 outs - Margin measured in outs: -2.53 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling loses $27.57 on average. Hits bring in $48.29, misses cost $75.86, and the ratio is -0.276 per dollar called. Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 3.14 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2 : 1. Do not forget your own call. Dividing the bet by the pot without it gives 50.00%, not 33.33%, and would show a margin of -25.8557 points. ## The price with implied odds Break-even needs $114.18 of future winnings on top of the $300 already in the pot, which is 1.14 times the cost of your call. Price of a pot-size call with future winnings added, 6 outs on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | -9.19 points | -$27.57 | Fold | | $50 | 28.57% | -4.43 points | -$15.49 | Fold | | $100 | 25.00% | -0.86 points | -$3.42 | Fold | | $250 | 18.18% | +5.96 points | +$32.79 | Call | | $500 | 12.50% | +11.64 points | +$93.15 | Call | Reaching 33.33% takes 9 outs on the flop, which hit 34.97%. With 6, the distance is 3 outs. ## The next card against the whole runout 6 outs against a pot-size bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 24.14% | -9.1890 points | -$27.57 | Fold | | Next card only | 12.77% | -20.5674 points | -$61.70 | Fold | Whether you count one card or two, the answer is a fold. The river figure is 24.14%, the next-card figure is 12.77%, and both are measured against 33.33%. ## Counts close to yours Here are the neighbors of 6 outs, priced against the same 33.33%. One more out lifts your chance by about 3.70 points. Outs 4 to 8 on the flop against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 16.47% | -16.87 points | Fold | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 20.35% | -12.98 points | Fold | | 6 outs, this page | 24.14% | -9.19 points | Fold | | [7 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 27.84% | -5.49 points | Fold | | [8 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 31.45% | -1.88 points | Fold | ## Other bet sizes for this draw The same 6 outs on the flop meet a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked. 6 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +7.48 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +4.14 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +1.92 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -0.86 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -4.43 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -5.86 points | Fold | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | -9.19 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -11.57 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -13.36 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -15.86 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -18.71 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -20.30 points | Fold | Your draw can face a bet of up to 0.47 times the pot ($46.69 on a $100 pot) and still break even. 3 of the 12 sizes fall at or under that line. ## More on these numbers - [6 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 6 outs on the flop against a bet of the full pot? Math says fold. The pot-size bet of $100 needs 33.33% equity, 6 outs on the flop give 24.14%, and the margin is -9.19 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth -$27.57 on average. ### What is the fewest outs that can call a pot-size bet on the flop? Against 33.33%, the first count that works on the flop is 9, at 34.97%. At 8 the chance is 31.45%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 6 outs are 3 below. ### How many cards should you count when a pot-size bet arrives on the flop? Count two cards, 24.14%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 12.77%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 33.33%, either number leads to a fold. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 820 out of 1,081; hit chance: 24.14%. The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 33.33%, from $100 into $300, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 47 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [6 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)