--- title: "Call or Fold: 6 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-turn-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "With 6 outs on the turn you hit 13.04%; a third-pot bet needs 20.00%. The math says fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 6 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn With 6 outs on the turn you hit 13.04%; a third-pot bet needs 20.00%. The math says fold. A third-pot bet on the turn is too expensive to call with 6 outs. You hit 13.04% of the time by the river and the call needs 20.00%. - Verdict: Fold (6 outs, turn, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 13.04% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: -6.96 points (your chance minus the price) ## Comparing the draw with the bet The odds you are given are worse than the odds you need: 20.00% needed, 13.04% held, 6.96 points missing. Holding two overcards gives you exactly 6 outs, out of 46 unseen cards. One card hits 13.04% of the time. ## The $100 pot example - Pot before the bet: $100 - Your opponent bets: $33.33 - Chips you put in: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - What a hit wins: $133.33 - What a miss costs: $33.33 - Chance to hit by the river: 13.04% - Average value of the call: -$11.59 - Equity the call needs: 20.00% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -6.9565 points - Outs at break-even: 9.20 outs - Outs above the price: -3.20 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $17.39 in and $28.99 out, so calling loses $11.59 on average at -0.348 per dollar called. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 6.67 : 1, and the pot lays 4 : 1 on a call. Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 25.00%, when the real price is 20.00%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -11.9565 points; on 33.33%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -20.2899 points. ## What implied odds would have to do Think of it as a missing $88.89. When the draw hits you must collect that much beyond the pot for the $33.33 call to pay for itself, 2.67 times your call. Price of a third-pot call with future winnings added, 6 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | -6.96 points | -$11.59 | Fold | | $50 | 15.38% | -2.34 points | -$5.07 | Fold | | $100 | 12.50% | +0.54 points | +$1.45 | Call | | $250 | 8.00% | +5.04 points | +$21.01 | Call | | $500 | 5.00% | +8.04 points | +$53.62 | Call | Another way to close the gap is more outs. The fewest outs that call a third-pot bet on the turn is 10; with 10 outs you would hit 21.74%. That is 4 more outs than the 6 you hold. ## The same draw on the flop 6 outs against a third-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 24.14% | +4.1443 points | +$6.91 | Call | | Turn, one card to come | 13.04% | -6.9565 points | -$11.59 | Fold | Only the river remains, so there is just one number: 13.04%. For reference, the same draw on the flop was 24.14%, 11.10 points higher, which against 20.00% is a call. ## Counts close to yours Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 20.00%, and each out moves the chance about 2.17 points. Outs 4 to 8 on the turn against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [4 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 8.70% | -11.30 points | Fold | | 5 outs | 10.87% | -9.13 points | Fold | | 6 outs, this page | 13.04% | -6.96 points | Fold | | 7 outs | 15.22% | -4.78 points | Fold | | 8 outs | 17.39% | -2.61 points | Fold | ## Changing the bet, keeping the draw Bet size sets the price, so the verdict changes as you scan the table. The third-pot bet of this page is marked in the first column. 6 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | -3.62 points | Fold | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | -6.96 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -9.18 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -11.96 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -15.53 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -16.96 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -20.29 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -22.67 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -24.46 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -26.96 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -29.81 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -31.40 points | Fold | With 13.04% to hit, you can call a bet up to 0.18 times the pot ($17.65 on a $100 pot) and no more, which is smaller than every size listed. All 12 rows are folds. ## Related pages - [6 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What does the math say about calling a bet of a third of the pot with 6 outs on the turn? Math says fold. The third-pot bet of $33.33 needs 20.00% equity, 6 outs on the turn give 13.04%, and the margin is -6.96 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth -$11.59 on average. ### At what count of outs does a third-pot bet on the turn become a call? Look for 10 outs. That is the smallest count whose chance, 21.74%, reaches the 20.00% price; 9 manages 19.57%. You have 6, so you are 4 behind the minimum. ### Which hit chance fits a third-pot bet on the turn? The question belongs to the flop. On the turn, 6 outs among 46 cards give 13.04% either way, and against 20.00% that is a fold by 6.96 points. ## How this is computed Counting is exact: one card is left, 6 of 46 unseen cards help, and the chance is 13.04%. What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 46 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [6 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)