--- title: "Call or Fold: 7 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "27.84% chance against a 28.57% price: 7 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet is a fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 7 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop 27.84% chance against a 28.57% price: 7 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet is a fold. On the flop, 7 outs are not enough to call a two-thirds-pot bet. The price is 28.57% and the chance is 27.84%. - Verdict: Fold (7 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 27.84% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -0.73 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict Folding beats calling by a hair. 27.84% misses 28.57% by 0.73 points, so the call loses a little on average. Few single draws land on exactly 7 outs, so add up each way to improve and check the total. One card hits 14.89% of the time here. ## One hand, in dollars - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - Your opponent bets: $66.67 - Chips you put in: $66.67 - Total pot after calling: $233.33 - Net gain when you hit: $166.67 - Loss on a miss: $66.67 - How often you hit: 27.84% - Expected value of calling: -$1.70 - Equity needed to break even: 28.57% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: -0.7268 points - Break-even count of outs: 7.20 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: -0.20 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling loses $1.70 on average. Hits bring in $46.41, misses cost $48.10, and the ratio is -0.025 per dollar called. As odds, 2.59 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 2.5 : 1. The price is 28.57% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 40.00%, a margin of -12.1554 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 66.67% puts the margin at -38.8221 points. ## The extra winnings a call would need To make the call break even you would need to win another $6.09 after you hit, which is 0.09 times your call. Anything above that makes the call a good one. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 7 outs on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -0.73 points | -$1.70 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | +4.32 points | +$12.23 | Call | | $100 | 20.00% | +7.84 points | +$26.15 | Call | | $250 | 13.79% | +14.05 points | +$67.92 | Call | | $500 | 9.09% | +18.75 points | +$137.53 | Call | Outs are the other lever. At 8 outs you reach 31.45% by the river, enough for a two-thirds-pot bet, and you are 1 out away. ## Two cards to come, or just one 7 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 27.84% | -0.7268 points | -$1.70 | Fold | | Next card only | 14.89% | -13.6778 points | -$31.91 | Fold | Whether you count one card or two, the answer is a fold. The river figure is 27.84%, the next-card figure is 14.89%, and both are measured against 28.57%. ## Neighbors of this draw Move up or down a few outs and watch the verdict. Every extra out is worth about 3.61 points on the flop, and the price stays at 28.57%. Outs 5 to 9 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [5 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/5-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 20.35% | -8.22 points | Fold | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 24.14% | -4.43 points | Fold | | 7 outs, this page | 27.84% | -0.73 points | Fold | | [8 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 31.45% | +2.88 points | Call | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 34.97% | +6.40 points | Call | ## Bigger and smaller bets One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 7 outs on the flop. 7 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +11.18 points | Call | | third-pot | 20.00% | +7.84 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +5.62 points | Call | | half-pot | 25.00% | +2.84 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -0.73 points | Fold | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -2.16 points | Fold | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -5.49 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -7.87 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -9.66 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -12.16 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -15.01 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -16.60 points | Fold | The largest bet this draw can call on the flop is 0.63 times the pot ($62.84 on a $100 pot). 7 outs call 4 of the 12 bet sizes listed. ## Next pages to read - [7 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Is a call correct with 7 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop? The verdict is fold. Your chance is 27.84% and the price is 28.57%, which leaves -0.73 points. On a $100 pot with a $66.67 bet, calling is worth -$1.70 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet. ### How many outs make a call correct against two thirds of the pot on the flop? The fewest outs that call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is 8. With 8 outs you hit 31.45%, which reaches the 28.57% price, while 7 outs hit only 27.84%. You have 7, so you are 1 below that count. ### Which hit chance fits a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop? Both figures are right for their own situation: 27.84% with no more betting, 14.89% when the turn brings a bet. Facing 28.57%, each one gives a fold. ## How this is computed The chance to hit is the exact closed form, with no simulation. From the flop, 780 of the 1,081 possible pairs of unseen cards hold no out, so the chance is 1 minus 780 / 1,081, which is 27.84%. Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [7 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)