--- title: "Call or Fold: 8 Outs vs full pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-pot-size" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Call or fold with 8 outs on the flop against a pot-size bet: 31.45% to hit, 33.33% needed, fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 8 Outs vs full pot, Flop Call or fold with 8 outs on the flop against a pot-size bet: 31.45% to hit, 33.33% needed, fold. A pot-size bet on the flop is too expensive to call with 8 outs. You hit 31.45% of the time by the river and the call needs 33.33%. - Verdict: Fold (8 outs, flop, pot-size bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 31.45% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 33.33% ($100 into a pot of $300) - Margin over the price: -1.88 points (your chance minus the price) ## Chance against price The price is 33.33%, the chance is 31.45%, and the call trails by 1.88 points. A thin gap, but on the side of folding. Count an open-ended straight draw and you land on 8 outs. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 17.02% of the time. ## Worked through on a $100 pot - Pot before the bet: $100 - Bet: $100 - Cost to call: $100 - Pot after your call: $300 - You can win on a hit: $200 - What a miss costs: $100 - How often you hit: 31.45% - Calling is worth, on average: -$5.64 - Equity the call needs: 33.33% - Margin, to four decimals: -1.8810 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 8.53 outs - Outs above the price: -0.53 outs Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling loses $5.64 on average. The hit side averages $62.90, the miss side $68.55, and each dollar called returns -0.056. As odds, 2.18 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 2 : 1. Skipping your own call in the pot gives a price of 50.00% where 33.33% is correct, and a margin of -18.5476 points instead of -1.88 points. ## What implied odds would have to do Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $17.94 more on later streets after hitting, which is 0.18 times the call you make. Price of a pot-size call with future winnings added, 8 outs on the flop | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 33.33% | -1.88 points | -$5.64 | Fold | | $50 | 28.57% | +2.88 points | +$10.08 | Call | | $100 | 25.00% | +6.45 points | +$25.81 | Call | | $250 | 18.18% | +13.27 points | +$72.99 | Call | | $500 | 12.50% | +18.95 points | +$151.62 | Call | 9 outs is the threshold against a pot-size bet on the flop, a chance of 34.97%. That is 1 more than your 8. ## Pricing one card at a time 8 outs against a pot-size bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 31.45% | -1.8810 points | -$5.64 | Fold | | Next card only | 17.02% | -16.3121 points | -$48.94 | Fold | Both views point the same way. By the river you hit 31.45%, on the next card 17.02%, and the price is 33.33%, so the fold holds whichever number applies. ## The call as outs change Same bet, same street, different draws. The row for 8 outs is marked, and every out is worth about 3.52 points. Outs 6 to 10 on the flop against a pot-size bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 24.14% | -9.19 points | Fold | | [7 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 27.84% | -5.49 points | Fold | | 8 outs, this page | 31.45% | -1.88 points | Fold | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 34.97% | +1.63 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 38.39% | +5.06 points | Call | ## The draw across every bet size How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 8 outs stay at 31.45%. 8 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +14.79 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +11.45 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +9.23 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +6.45 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +2.88 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +1.45 points | Call | | pot-size, this page | 33.33% | -1.88 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -4.26 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -6.05 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -8.55 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -11.40 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -12.99 points | Fold | Past 0.85 times the pot ($84.79 on a $100 pot) the price outruns your chance. Of the 12 sizes, 6 are calls for 8 outs on the flop. ## Next pages to read - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Call or fold with 8 outs on the flop against a bet of the full pot? Verdict: fold. A pot-size bet asks for 33.33% and you have 31.45%, a margin of -1.88 points. For a $100 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is -$5.64. ### What count of outs clears the price of a pot-size bet on the flop? To call a pot-size bet on the flop you want 9 outs or more. 9 reach 34.97% and 8 reach 31.45%, with 33.33% as the bar. Your 8 outs are 1 under. ### Should you use the chance on the next card or by the river? Count two cards, 31.45%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 17.02%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 33.33%, either number leads to a fold. ## How this is computed The hit chance comes straight from combinations. Out of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, 741 miss every out, so you hit 31.45% of the time. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $100 of a $300 pot (33.33%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)