--- title: "Call or Fold: 8 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 8 outs on the flop give 31.45%, a margin of +11.45 points and a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 8 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and 8 outs on the flop give 31.45%, a margin of +11.45 points and a call. Call. With 8 outs on the flop, your 31.45% chance beats the 20.00% price of a third-pot bet. - Verdict: Call (8 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 31.45% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +11.45 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict 31.45% against 20.00%: the draw beats the price by 11.45 points. On this flop against a third-pot bet, that is a comfortable call. The usual home for 8 outs is an open-ended straight draw. One card from the 47 unseen ones completes it 17.02% of the time. ## One hand, in dollars - Starting pot: $100 - Bet: $33.33 - Chips you put in: $33.33 - Total pot after calling: $166.67 - What a hit wins: $133.33 - You lose on a miss: $33.33 - Your chance to hit: 31.45% - Calling is worth, on average: +$19.09 - Price of the call: 20.00% - Unrounded margin: +11.4524 points - Outs at break-even: 4.91 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: +3.09 outs Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $41.94 in and $22.85 out, so calling gains $19.09 on average at +0.573 per dollar called. In odds, you face 2.18 : 1 against you and the pot pays 4 : 1. Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 20.00% into 25.00%, and the margin into +6.4524 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of -1.8810 points, further from the truth. ## What could go wrong before the call flips 5 outs is the line for a third-pot bet on the flop. Your 8 sit 3 outs above it, and the chance at the line is 20.35%. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 8 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +11.45 points | +$19.09 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +10.18 points | +$15.94 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +7.92 points | +$11.22 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +2.88 points | +$3.36 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -18.55 points | -$12.37 | Fold | Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $60.69, or 1.82 times your call, after a hit and still break even. ## By the river or next card 8 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 31.45% | +11.4524 points | +$19.09 | Call | | Next card only | 17.02% | -2.9787 points | -$4.96 | Fold | 31.45% for two cards says call, while 17.02% for one card says fold, both against 20.00%. If you will have to pay again on the turn, trust the one-card number. ## Neighbors of this draw Same bet, same street, different draws. The row for 8 outs is marked, and every out is worth about 3.52 points. Outs 6 to 10 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 24.14% | +4.14 points | Call | | 7 outs | 27.84% | +7.84 points | Call | | 8 outs, this page | 31.45% | +11.45 points | Call | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 34.97% | +14.97 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 38.39% | +18.39 points | Call | ## The draw across every bet size Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 8 outs on the flop and a bet of a different size. 8 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +14.79 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +11.45 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +9.23 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +6.45 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +2.88 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +1.45 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -1.88 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -4.26 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -6.05 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -8.55 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -11.40 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -12.99 points | Fold | 8 outs stop paying at 0.85 times the pot ($84.79 on a $100 pot). The call holds up against 6 of the 12 bet sizes. ## Next pages to read - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What is the right play with 8 outs when a third-pot bet comes on the flop? The verdict is call. Your chance is 31.45% and the price is 20.00%, which leaves +11.45 points. On a $100 pot with a $33.33 bet, calling is worth +$19.09 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet. ### What is the minimum number of outs for a third-pot bet on the flop? You need at least 5 outs against a third-pot bet on the flop. That count hits 20.35% against 20.00% needed, and 4 falls short at 16.47%. With 8 you are 3 past the minimum. ### Does it matter whether you count one card or two against a third-pot bet? Match the number to the betting. All-in or checked down: 31.45%. Facing another bet on the turn: 17.02%. The price is 20.00%, so the verdicts are call and fold in that order. ## How this is computed Here is how 31.45% was found. Deal every pair of the 47 unseen cards: 741 of 1,081 pairs contain no out. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($33.33 into $166.67, or 20.00%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 47 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)