--- title: "Call or Fold: 8 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "31.45% chance against a 28.57% price: 8 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet is a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 8 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop 31.45% chance against a 28.57% price: 8 outs on the flop facing a two-thirds-pot bet is a call. A two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is worth calling with 8 outs. You hit 31.45% of the time by the river and the call needs 28.57%. - Verdict: Call (8 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 31.45% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: +2.88 points (your chance minus the price) ## Chance against price 8 outs on the flop hit 31.45% by the river, and the two-thirds-pot bet needs 28.57%. You are 2.88 points above the price, a real edge, so calling is right. Holding an open-ended straight draw gives you exactly 8 outs, out of 47 unseen cards. One card hits 17.02% of the time. ## Worked through on a $100 pot - The pot before betting: $100 - Your opponent bets: $66.67 - Your call: $66.67 - Pot after your call: $233.33 - What a hit wins: $166.67 - You lose on a miss: $66.67 - Chance to hit by the river: 31.45% - Average value of the call: +$6.72 - Price of the call: 28.57% - Your chance minus the price, unrounded: +2.8809 points - Outs at break-even: 7.20 outs - Margin measured in outs: +0.80 outs If you win the whole pot on a hit and lose your call otherwise, with no more betting, calling gains $6.72 on average. Hits add $52.42 on average and misses cost $45.70 on average, or +0.101 per dollar called. Written as odds, the pot lays 2.5 : 1 while the draw is 2.18 : 1 against. One easy error is to use 40.00%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 28.57%, and the mistaken margin would be -8.5476 points. The bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, would claim -35.2143 points. ## Reverse implied odds and your margin The call does not survive losing even one out. At 8 outs the chance is 31.45%, just enough for 28.57%, and that is the count you hold. Price of a two-thirds-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 8 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | +2.88 points | +$6.72 | Call | | $10 | 29.85% | +1.60 points | +$3.58 | Call | | $25 | 32.00% | -0.55 points | -$1.14 | Fold | | $50 | 36.36% | -4.91 points | -$9 | Fold | | $100 | 50.00% | -18.55 points | -$24.73 | Fold | The call keeps its edge until you lose $21.37 on later streets after hitting. That is 0.32 times the $66.67 you pay now. ## The next card against the whole runout 8 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 31.45% | +2.8809 points | +$6.72 | Call | | Next card only | 17.02% | -11.5502 points | -$26.95 | Fold | Here the cards to come matter. Two cards reach 31.45% and point to a call; one card reaches 17.02% and points to a fold. Which one applies depends on whether the turn brings another bet. ## Neighbors of this draw Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 28.57%, and each out moves the chance about 3.52 points. Outs 6 to 10 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [6 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 24.14% | -4.43 points | Fold | | [7 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 27.84% | -0.73 points | Fold | | 8 outs, this page | 31.45% | +2.88 points | Call | | [9 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 34.97% | +6.40 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 38.39% | +9.82 points | Call | ## Where the bet size flips the call Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 8 outs on the flop and a bet of a different size. 8 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +14.79 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +11.45 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +9.23 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +6.45 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +2.88 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +1.45 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -1.88 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -4.26 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -6.05 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -8.55 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -11.40 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -12.99 points | Fold | Past 0.85 times the pot ($84.79 on a $100 pot) the price outruns your chance. Of the 12 sizes, 6 are calls for 8 outs on the flop. ## Go deeper - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Does the math favor calling a two-thirds-pot bet with 8 outs on the flop? Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 31.45% to hit and 28.57% to break even. The first minus the second is +2.88 points, which makes this a call, and the call averages +$6.72 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows. ### How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of two thirds of the pot on the flop? 8 outs is the line. At 8 the chance is 31.45%, enough for 28.57%; one fewer gives 27.84%, which is not. Your 8 outs sit right on it on the flop, at 31.45%. ### Is the by-the-river chance the right one to use on the flop? Match the number to the betting. All-in or checked down: 31.45%. Facing another bet on the turn: 17.02%. The price is 28.57%, so the verdicts are call and fold in that order. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 741 out of 1,081; hit chance: 31.45%. The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 28.57%, from $66.67 into $233.33, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 47 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)