--- title: "Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "34.97% chance against a 20.00% price: 9 outs on the flop facing a third-pot bet is a call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Flop 34.97% chance against a 20.00% price: 9 outs on the flop facing a third-pot bet is a call. On the flop, 9 outs are enough to call a third-pot bet. The price is 20.00% and the chance is 34.97%. - Verdict: Call (9 outs, flop, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 34.97% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: +14.97 points (your chance minus the price) ## How the verdict is reached This is one of the easier spots. 9 outs on the flop reach 34.97% by the river, the third-pot bet asks for just 20.00%, and the 14.97-point margin favors the call. 9 out of 47 unseen cards is the shape of a flush draw, and a single card hits 19.15% of the time. ## The arithmetic of this call - The pot before betting: $100 - Bet: $33.33 - You call: $33.33 - Pot after your call: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - Loss on a miss: $33.33 - Your chance to hit: 34.97% - Average value of the call: +$24.95 - Break-even equity: 20.00% - Margin, to four decimals: +14.9676 points - Outs that exactly reach the price: 4.91 outs - Outs to spare, exactly: +4.09 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling gains $24.95 on average. Hits bring in $46.62, misses cost $21.68, and the ratio is +0.748 per dollar called. Written as odds, the pot lays 4 : 1 while the draw is 1.86 : 1 against. One easy error is to use 25.00%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 20.00%, and the mistaken margin would be +9.9676 points. The bet over the starting pot, 33.33%, would claim +1.6343 points. ## How much room the call has The threshold is 5 outs, a chance of 20.35%. With 9 in hand you are 4 outs clear of it. Price of a third-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 9 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | +14.97 points | +$24.95 | Call | | $10 | 21.28% | +13.69 points | +$21.45 | Call | | $25 | 23.53% | +11.44 points | +$16.20 | Call | | $50 | 28.57% | +6.40 points | +$7.46 | Call | | $100 | 50.00% | -15.03 points | -$10.02 | Fold | The call keeps its edge until you lose $71.34 on later streets after hitting. That is 2.14 times the $33.33 you pay now. ## Which chance to use 9 outs against a third-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 34.97% | +14.9676 points | +$24.95 | Call | | Next card only | 19.15% | -0.8511 points | -$1.42 | Fold | 34.97% for two cards says call, while 19.15% for one card says fold, both against 20.00%. If you will have to pay again on the turn, trust the one-card number. ## Nearby draws Here are the neighbors of 9 outs, priced against the same 20.00%. One more out lifts your chance by about 3.42 points. Outs 7 to 11 on the flop against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 outs | 27.84% | +7.84 points | Call | | [8 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 31.45% | +11.45 points | Call | | 9 outs, this page | 34.97% | +14.97 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 38.39% | +18.39 points | Call | | [11 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 41.72% | +21.72 points | Call | ## Changing the bet, keeping the draw Bet size sets the price, so the verdict changes as you scan the table. The third-pot bet of this page is marked in the first column. 9 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +18.30 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +14.97 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +12.75 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +9.97 points | Call | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +6.40 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +4.97 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +1.63 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -0.75 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -2.53 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -5.03 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -7.89 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -9.48 points | Fold | The ceiling for a call is a bet of 1.16 times the pot ($116.31 on a $100 pot). 7 out of 12 sizes sit under it on the flop. ## Pages that use the same math - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What does the math say about calling a bet of a third of the pot with 9 outs on the flop? By the numbers it is a call. 9 outs on the flop hit 34.97% by the river, a third-pot bet needs 20.00%, and the margin is +14.97 points. That assumes you call the full $33.33 and no more betting follows, and it values the call at +$24.95 per $100 pot. ### How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of a third of the pot on the flop? To call a third-pot bet on the flop you want 5 outs or more. 5 reach 20.35% and 4 reach 16.47%, with 20.00% as the bar. Your 9 outs are 4 over. ### Is the by-the-river chance the right one to use on the flop? Use the by-the-river chance, 34.97%, when you are all-in or no more betting follows. Use the next-card chance, 19.15%, when you must pay again on the turn. Against the 20.00% price the first is a call and the second is a fold. ## How this is computed The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 703 out of 1,081; hit chance: 34.97%. Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)