--- title: "Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-21" type: "reference" summary: "Flop spot, 9 outs, two-thirds-pot bet: you hit 34.97% by the river against 28.57% needed. Verdict: call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Flop Flop spot, 9 outs, two-thirds-pot bet: you hit 34.97% by the river against 28.57% needed. Verdict: call. A two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is worth calling with 9 outs. You hit 34.97% of the time by the river and the call needs 28.57%. - Verdict: Call (9 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 34.97% (two cards to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: +6.40 points (your chance minus the price) ## Reading the verdict The odds you are given are better than the odds you need: 28.57% needed, 34.97% held, 6.40 points to spare. The count matches a flush draw, so you can read this page as that draw. The very next card completes it 19.15% of the time, 9 out of 47. ## Counting the chips on a $100 pot - Pot when the bet arrives: $100 - The bet: $66.67 - Cost to call: $66.67 - Pot with your call in: $233.33 - Gain on a hit: $166.67 - Loss on a miss: $66.67 - Your chance to hit: 34.97% - Calling is worth, on average: +$14.92 - Equity needed to break even: 28.57% - Exact margin over the price: +6.3962 points - Break-even count of outs: 7.20 outs - Outs above the price: +1.80 outs Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling gains $14.92 on average. Hits bring in $58.28, misses cost $43.35, and the ratio is +0.224 per dollar called. As odds, 1.86 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 2.5 : 1. Do not forget your own call. Dividing the bet by the pot without it gives 40.00%, not 28.57%, and would show a margin of -5.0324 points. The bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, is worse and would show -31.6990 points. ## What could go wrong before the call flips With 9 outs you sit 1 out above the minimum of 8 that a two-thirds-pot bet requires on the flop. Price of a two-thirds-pot call if you give money back after a hit, 9 outs on the flop | Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | +6.40 points | +$14.92 | Call | | $10 | 29.85% | +5.12 points | +$11.43 | Call | | $25 | 32.00% | +2.97 points | +$6.18 | Call | | $50 | 36.36% | -1.40 points | -$2.56 | Fold | | $100 | 50.00% | -15.03 points | -$20.04 | Fold | If hitting means paying off a bigger hand later, the call survives a loss of $42.68. That is 0.64 times the $66.67 call. ## Two cards to come, or just one 9 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, one view per row | Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | By the river, two cards | 34.97% | +6.3962 points | +$14.92 | Call | | Next card only | 19.15% | -9.4225 points | -$21.99 | Fold | The verdict depends on how many cards you get to see. The runout figure is 34.97% (call), the next-card figure is 19.15% (fold), and the price is 28.57%. ## A few outs either way One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 9. Each out adds roughly 3.42 points against the 28.57% price. Outs 7 to 11 on the flop against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [7 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 27.84% | -0.73 points | Fold | | [8 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 31.45% | +2.88 points | Call | | 9 outs, this page | 34.97% | +6.40 points | Call | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 38.39% | +9.82 points | Call | | [11 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 41.72% | +13.15 points | Call | ## Every bet size, one draw Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 9 outs on the flop and a bet of a different size. 9 outs on the flop against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +18.30 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +14.97 points | Call | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +12.75 points | Call | | [half-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +9.97 points | Call | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +6.40 points | Call | | [three-quarter-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +4.97 points | Call | | [pot-size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +1.63 points | Call | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -0.75 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -2.53 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -5.03 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -7.89 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -9.48 points | Fold | The largest bet this draw can call on the flop is 1.16 times the pot ($116.31 on a $100 pot). 9 outs call 7 of the 12 bet sizes listed. ## Go deeper - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### What is the right play with 9 outs when a two-thirds-pot bet comes on the flop? By the numbers it is a call. 9 outs on the flop hit 34.97% by the river, a two-thirds-pot bet needs 28.57%, and the margin is +6.40 points. That assumes you call the full $66.67 and no more betting follows, and it values the call at +$14.92 per $100 pot. ### How many outs make a call correct against two thirds of the pot on the flop? The threshold is 8 outs. It gives 31.45%, clearing 28.57%, whereas 7 gives only 27.84%. Holding 9 puts you 1 above it, with a chance of 34.97%. ### One card or two: which number belongs next to the 28.57% price? Two cards cost one bet only if the hand really ends here. In that case use 34.97%. If you will face the turn bet as well, use 19.15%. Versus 28.57%, the first is a call and the second is a fold. ## How this is computed Everything is computed from the closed form. Pairs without an out: 703 of 1,081. The rest, 34.97%, hold at least one out. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $66.67 of a $233.33 pot (28.57%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)