--- title: "Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-third-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "The exact answer for 9 outs on the turn facing a third-pot bet: 19.57% to hit, 20.00% to break even, fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 1/3 pot, Turn The exact answer for 9 outs on the turn facing a third-pot bet: 19.57% to hit, 20.00% to break even, fold. Your draw is priced too high to call here: 19.57% to hit, 20.00% needed against a third-pot bet on the turn. - Verdict: Fold (9 outs, turn, third-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 19.57% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 20.00% ($33.33 into a pot of $166.67) - Margin over the price: -0.43 points (your chance minus the price) ## The price of the call Folding beats calling by a hair. 19.57% misses 20.00% by 0.43 points, so the call loses a little on average. 9 outs is the standard count for a flush draw. Of the 46 unseen cards on the turn, 9 complete it, which is 19.57% on the very next card. ## The $100 pot example - The pot before betting: $100 - Bet: $33.33 - Your call: $33.33 - Pot with your call in: $166.67 - Gain on a hit: $133.33 - Net loss when you miss: $33.33 - How often you hit: 19.57% - Calling is worth, on average: -$0.72 - Break-even equity: 20.00% - Margin, to four decimals: -0.4348 points - Outs at break-even: 9.20 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: -0.20 outs With no more betting, the whole pot won on a hit and the call lost on a miss, the call loses $0.72 on average. The hit side averages $26.09, the miss side $26.81, and each dollar called returns -0.022. Stated as odds, you are 4.11 : 1 against hitting and the call gets 4 : 1 from the pot. Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 25.00%, when the real price is 20.00%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -5.4348 points; on 33.33%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -13.7681 points. ## What it would take to call The shortfall in dollars is $3.70: the amount a hit would have to win later for 19.57% to be enough. It equals 0.11 times your $33.33 call. Price of a third-pot call with future winnings added, 9 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 20.00% | -0.43 points | -$0.72 | Fold | | $50 | 15.38% | +4.18 points | +$9.06 | Call | | $100 | 12.50% | +7.07 points | +$18.84 | Call | | $250 | 8.00% | +11.57 points | +$48.19 | Call | | $500 | 5.00% | +14.57 points | +$97.10 | Call | Reaching 20.00% takes 10 outs on the turn, which hit 21.74%. With 9, the distance is 1 out. ## What the flop would have given you 9 outs against a third-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 34.97% | +14.9676 points | +$24.95 | Call | | Turn, one card to come | 19.57% | -0.4348 points | -$0.72 | Fold | Waiting a street costs 15.40 points. The flop gives 9 outs two chances to hit, 34.97%, and a call against 20.00%; the turn gives one, 19.57%. ## The call as outs change A few outs either way, against a third-pot bet that needs 20.00%. The chance climbs about 2.17 points with each extra out. Outs 7 to 11 on the turn against a third-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 outs | 15.22% | -4.78 points | Fold | | 8 outs | 17.39% | -2.61 points | Fold | | 9 outs, this page | 19.57% | -0.43 points | Fold | | 10 outs | 21.74% | +1.74 points | Call | | 11 outs | 23.91% | +3.91 points | Call | ## The same draw against other bet sizes One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 9 outs on the turn. 9 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +2.90 points | Call | | third-pot, this page | 20.00% | -0.43 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -2.66 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -5.43 points | Fold | | [two-thirds-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -9.01 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -10.43 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -13.77 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -16.15 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -17.93 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -20.43 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -23.29 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -24.88 points | Fold | The largest bet this draw can call on the turn is 0.32 times the pot ($32.14 on a $100 pot). 9 outs call 1 of the 12 bet sizes listed. ## Where to look next - [9 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### Should you call a third-pot bet with 9 outs on the turn? Math says fold. The third-pot bet of $33.33 needs 20.00% equity, 9 outs on the turn give 19.57%, and the margin is -0.43 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth -$0.72 on average. ### At what count of outs does a third-pot bet on the turn become a call? To call a third-pot bet on the turn you want 10 outs or more. 10 reach 21.74% and 9 reach 19.57%, with 20.00% as the bar. Your 9 outs are 1 under. ### Does it matter whether you count one card or two against a third-pot bet? On the turn only one card is left, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same, 19.57%. Against the 20.00% price that is a fold, with a margin of -0.43 points. ## How this is computed The number is exact rather than estimated. 9 of the 46 cards that could come are outs, which is 19.57%. Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($33.33 into $166.67, or 20.00%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 46 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [9 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)