--- title: "Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Turn spot, 9 outs, two-thirds-pot bet: you hit 19.57% by the river against 28.57% needed. Verdict: fold." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md"] --- # Call or Fold: 9 Outs vs 2/3 pot, Turn Turn spot, 9 outs, two-thirds-pot bet: you hit 19.57% by the river against 28.57% needed. Verdict: fold. Here is why a call fails on the turn: a two-thirds-pot bet needs 28.57% equity, and 9 outs supply only 19.57%. - Verdict: Fold (9 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet) - Chance to hit by the river: 19.57% (one card to come) - Equity the call needs: 28.57% ($66.67 into a pot of $233.33) - Margin over the price: -9.01 points (your chance minus the price) ## How the verdict is reached This is one of the easier spots. 9 outs on the turn reach 19.57% by the river, the two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57%, and the 9.01-point gap favors folding. The usual home for 9 outs is a flush draw. One card from the 46 unseen ones completes it 19.57% of the time. ## Putting dollars on the call - The pot before betting: $100 - The bet: $66.67 - Chips you put in: $66.67 - Pot with your call in: $233.33 - Net gain when you hit: $166.67 - You lose on a miss: $66.67 - Chance to hit by the river: 19.57% - Expected value of a call: -$21.01 - Equity needed to break even: 28.57% - Exact margin over the price: -9.0062 points - Break-even count of outs: 13.14 outs - Your outs minus break-even outs: -4.14 outs Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling loses $21.01 on average. The hit side averages $32.61, the miss side $53.62, and each dollar called returns -0.315. The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 4.11 : 1, and the pot lays 2.5 : 1 on a call. A common slip is to divide the bet by the pot after the bet but before your call. That gives 40.00% instead of 28.57% and would put your margin at -20.4348 points. Using the bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, is further off and would put it at -47.1014 points. ## The extra winnings a call would need With 19.57% to hit, break-even sits $107.41 higher than the pot shows. Put another way, later bets must add 1.61 times your call. Price of a two-thirds-pot call with future winnings added, 9 outs on the turn | Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $0 | 28.57% | -9.01 points | -$21.01 | Fold | | $50 | 23.53% | -3.96 points | -$11.23 | Fold | | $100 | 20.00% | -0.43 points | -$1.45 | Fold | | $250 | 13.79% | +5.77 points | +$27.90 | Call | | $500 | 9.09% | +10.47 points | +$76.81 | Call | The call starts to work at 14 outs, where the chance is 30.43%. Your 9 outs fall 5 outs below that. ## One card to come instead of two 9 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet, flop and turn | Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Flop, two cards to come | 34.97% | +6.3962 points | +$14.92 | Call | | Turn, one card to come | 19.57% | -9.0062 points | -$21.01 | Fold | On the turn only one card is left, so the chance by the river and the chance on the next card are the same 19.57%. Back on the flop, the same 9 outs hit 34.97%, 15.40 points more, and that would have been a call. ## Counts close to yours The table shows 9 outs and the draws around it on the turn, all against the same two-thirds-pot bet. Each extra out adds about 2.17 points to the chance here. Outs 7 to 11 on the turn against a two-thirds-pot bet | Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [7 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 15.22% | -13.35 points | Fold | | 8 outs | 17.39% | -11.18 points | Fold | | 9 outs, this page | 19.57% | -9.01 points | Fold | | [10 outs](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 21.74% | -6.83 points | Fold | | 11 outs | 23.91% | -4.66 points | Fold | ## The same draw against other bet sizes Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 9 outs on the turn and a bet of a different size. 9 outs on the turn against every bet size | Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | quarter-pot | 16.67% | +2.90 points | Call | | [third-pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -0.43 points | Fold | | two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -2.66 points | Fold | | half-pot | 25.00% | -5.43 points | Fold | | two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -9.01 points | Fold | | three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -10.43 points | Fold | | pot-size | 33.33% | -13.77 points | Fold | | 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -16.15 points | Fold | | 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -17.93 points | Fold | | 2x-pot | 40.00% | -20.43 points | Fold | | 3x-pot | 42.86% | -23.29 points | Fold | | 4x-pot | 44.44% | -24.88 points | Fold | Past 0.32 times the pot ($32.14 on a $100 pot) the price outruns your chance. Of the 12 sizes, 1 is a call for 9 outs on the turn. ## Keep exploring - [9 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Questions ### How should you respond to a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn when you hold 9 outs? Your chance, 19.57%, set against the 28.57% price gives -9.01 points and a fold. With a $100 pot, a $66.67 call and no more betting, the average value of the call is -$21.01. ### How many outs do you need to call a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn? The threshold is 14 outs. It gives 30.43%, clearing 28.57%, whereas 13 gives only 28.26%. Holding 9 puts you 5 below it, with a chance of 19.57%. ### How many cards should you count when a two-thirds-pot bet arrives on the turn? On the turn only one card is left, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same, 19.57%. Against the 28.57% price that is a fold, with a margin of -9.01 points. ## How this is computed Counting is exact: one card is left, 9 of 46 unseen cards help, and the chance is 19.57%. These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $66.67 of a $233.33 pot (28.57%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 46 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [9 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md) - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md) - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md) - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md) - [Call or fold with a draw](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md) ## Related - [Call or Fold With a Draw by Bet Size](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold.md)