--- title: "QTo vs 44: preflop equity" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-44.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-44" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "QTo vs 44 is close to a coin flip before the flop: 49.32% to 50.68% equity, counted exactly over every board, with the split by flop type and suit." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-j9s.md", "https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-jto.md", "https://georgelipoker.com/equity/a2s-vs-44.md"] --- # QTo vs 44: preflop equity QTo vs 44 is close to a coin flip before the flop: 49.32% to 50.68% equity, counted exactly over every board, with the split by flop type and suit. Averaged over every possible board, 44 is ahead of QTo by 1.36 points of equity, 50.68% to 49.32%. ## QTo against 44: the numbers **Exact preflop results for QTo against 44, in percent** | Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | QTo | 48.928 | 0.790 | 50.282 | 49.323 | | 44 | 50.282 | 0.790 | 48.928 | 50.677 | We compare an offsuit hand with a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear. This is close to even money, with 44 a little ahead. Split pots make up 0.79% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each. In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, QTo is number 47 and 44 is number 48. **Boards behind the percentages: 123,285,888 counted in all** | Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | QTo | 60,321,000 | 974,000 | 61,991,000 | | 44 | 61,991,000 | 974,000 | 60,321,000 | The total is exact: 72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand. **QTo against 44 read as odds** | Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | QTo | 0.973 | 2.044 | 1.989 | 1.027 | | 44 | 1.027 | 1.989 | 2.044 | 0.973 | The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity. ## Who is ahead on which flops If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: 44 holds 76.03% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 43.74% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. The lead reverses on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and monotone flops: there QTo is the favorite even though 44 is ahead overall. **QTo against 44 by flop texture, in percent** | Flop | Share of flops | QTo wins | Ties | 44 wins | QTo equity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 56.049 | 0.426 | 43.525 | 56.262 | | Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 23.619 | 0.710 | 75.671 | 23.974 | | Two-tone | 46.485 | 49.661 | 0.471 | 49.868 | 49.896 | | Monotone | 5.151 | 50.586 | 2.136 | 47.278 | 51.654 | | Paired | 17.333 | 45.537 | 1.794 | 52.669 | 46.434 | Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank. ## Compared with a random hand Relative to a random opponent, QTo changes by -7.97 points (baseline 57.29%) and 44 by -6.34 points (baseline 57.02%). **QTo and 44 here compared with each against a random hand, in percent** | Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | QTo, all flops | 49.323 | 57.291 | -7.968 | 0.86092 | | QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 56.262 | 57.291 | -1.029 | 0.98204 | | QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.974 | 57.291 | -33.317 | 0.41846 | | QTo, two-tone | 49.896 | 57.291 | -7.395 | 0.87092 | | QTo, monotone | 51.654 | 57.291 | -5.637 | 0.90161 | | QTo, paired | 46.434 | 57.291 | -10.857 | 0.81049 | | 44, all flops | 50.677 | 57.023 | -6.346 | 0.88871 | | 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 43.738 | 57.023 | -13.285 | 0.76702 | | 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.026 | 57.023 | +19.003 | 1.33325 | | 44, two-tone | 50.104 | 57.023 | -6.919 | 0.87866 | | 44, monotone | 48.346 | 57.023 | -8.677 | 0.84783 | | 44, paired | 53.566 | 57.023 | -3.457 | 0.93938 | ## Does a shared suit matter? When the hands share a suit, 44 holds 50.59%; when they do not, it holds 51.12%. 44 does better with no shared suit, by 0.53 points. **QTo against 44 by suit overlap, in percent** | Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | QTo wins | Ties | 44 wins | QTo equity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 49.011 | 0.803 | 50.186 | 49.413 | | No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 48.516 | 0.723 | 50.761 | 48.877 | ## How often this matchup comes up You will meet this exact matchup 0.0089% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 144 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order. ## A worked example Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 44's equity of 50.68% is worth $101.36, a $1.36 edge, and QTo's 49.32% is worth $98.64, which is $1.36 under its stake. Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 503 outright wins for 44, 489 for QTo, and 8 split pots. ## The same matchup from the other side Swap the hands and you get 44 with 50.68% against QTo with 49.32%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first. ## Keep exploring QsTh against 4d4c is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength. - [Open QsTh against 4d4c in the equity calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/equity-calculator.md#p1=QsTh&p2=4d4c) - [QTo combos](https://georgelipoker.com/combos/qto.md) - [44 combos](https://georgelipoker.com/combos/44.md) - [QTo vs J9s](https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-j9s.md) - [QTo vs JTo](https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-jto.md) - [A2s vs 44](https://georgelipoker.com/equity/a2s-vs-44.md) - [All hand matchups](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md) ## How this was computed Method: exact enumeration. The 72 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board. Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used. ## Related - [QTo vs J9s: preflop equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-j9s.md) - [QTo vs JTo: preflop equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity/qto-vs-jto.md) - [A2s vs 44: preflop equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity/a2s-vs-44.md)