--- title: "1 Out on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Chance to hit with 1 out on the turn: 2.17% on the river. Exact odds, the rule of 2 gap and a call or fold table." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 1 Out on the Turn: Odds to Hit Chance to hit with 1 out on the turn: 2.17% on the river. Exact odds, the rule of 2 gap and a call or fold table. Holding 1 out once the turn is dealt gives you a 2.17% chance on the river. Below you will find what that means as odds, how far the quick rule drifts and which bet sizes you can call. - Chance to hit on the river: 2.17% (1 out, one card to come) - Odds against: 45 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 2% (-0.17 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 1 out on the turn Think of 2.17% as a long shot that pays when the price is right. At 45 : 1 against, you need the pot to be laying a generous price. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 1 - Cards that miss: 45 - Chance on the river: 2.17% - Chance on the next card (the river): 2.17% - Odds against hitting: 45 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 2% - Error of the rule of 2: -0.17 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 1 out: 1 / 46 = 2.17% The river is the last card, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same number. For 1 out it is 1 / 46, or 2.17%. With 1 out the rule of 2 stays near the truth: 2% estimated, 2.17% exact, 0.17 points apart. Only flop counts above 8 call for the adjusted rule. For 1 out on the turn, 2 x 1 = 2% is the whole shortcut. ## Which holding has 1 out? A count of 1 means a single card helps. It comes from your own count of helpful cards, not from a standard draw. Count carefully: a card that gives you the draw and gives an opponent a better hand should come off the list. One shared out takes the chance down by 2.17 points, to 0.00%. 1 out on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 1 | 2.17% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 2.17 points | ## The bets 1 out can call on the turn Compare the columns: required equity on the left, margin in the middle, verdict at the end. With 1 out you can call none of the 12 bet sizes. 1 out on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 2.17% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | -14.49 points | Fold | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -17.83 points | Fold | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | -20.05 points | Fold | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | -22.83 points | Fold | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/1-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -26.40 points | Fold | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | -27.83 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -31.16 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -33.54 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -35.33 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -37.83 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -40.68 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -42.27 points | Fold | Stated as a share of the pot, the largest bet you can pay is 2.27%. On a $100 pot you can call up to $2.27. ## Nearby counts on both streets Counts near 1 sit side by side below, on the turn and on the other street. One out is worth around 2.17 points on this page. Counts near 1: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 (this page) | 2.17% | 4.26% | | [2](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-turn.md) | 4.35% | 8.42% | | [3](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md) | 6.52% | 12.49% | - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md): 4.26% by the river. - [2 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-turn.md): 4.35% on the river. ## The river is the last card One card remains, so the next-card and by-the-river figures match at 2.17%. Facing half the pot, you need 25.00% and hold a margin of -22.83 points, which is Fold. ## Questions ### How likely is a hit with 1 out on the turn? With 1 out on the turn you hit on the river 2.17% of the time, about 2 of every 100 hands, because 1 of the 46 unseen cards is an out. The odds against are 45 : 1. ### What does the rule of 2 say for a count of 1? The rule of 2 gives 2% for 1 out against an exact 2.17%, an error of -0.17 points. That is close enough to use at the table. ### Which bets can 1 out call on the turn? At 2.17% on the river, you can call none of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -22.83 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 2.27% of the pot, or $2.27 on a $100 pot. ### What if my out also helps a better hand? Take it off the count first. With your one out shared, the chance on the river falls from 2.17% to 0.00%, a loss of 2.17 points, and the effective count is then 0 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 1 out that is 1 / 46 = 2.17%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 2%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -0.17 points. The model gives every one of the 46 unseen cards the same chance and removes nothing for what a rival holds. It measures hitting an out, not winning the hand. Bets are priced on a $100 pot, and a call adds one bet to the pot. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [1 out on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md): The equity a third-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md): The equity a pot-size call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)