--- title: "10 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop" last_updated: "2026-10-22" type: "reference" summary: "The flop chance for 10 outs is 38.39% by the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 10 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit The flop chance for 10 outs is 38.39% by the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for. 38.39% is the exact chance by the river when you count 10 outs on the flop. Read on for the odds against, the shortcut figure and a full table of bet sizes with a call or fold verdict. - Chance to hit by the river: 38.39% (10 outs, two cards to come) - Chance on the next card: 21.28% - Odds against by the river: 1.6 : 1 - Rule of 4 estimate: 40% (+1.61 points from the exact chance) ## The count behind 10 outs on the flop With 38.39% by the river, the draw fails 61.61% of the time and lands the rest. That is enough to call a bet of up to 165.34% of the pot. - Unseen cards: 47 - Your outs: 10 - Cards that miss: 37 - Pairs of cards with no out: 666 - Pairs with at least one out: 415 - Chance by the river: 38.39% - Chance on the next card: 21.28% - Odds against hitting: 1.6 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 4: 40% - Error of the rule of 4: +1.61 points - Adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8): 38% - Error of the adjusted rule: -0.39 points - Chance by the river = 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), with u = 47 unseen cards - For 10 outs: 1 - C(37, 2) / C(47, 2) = 1 - 666 / 1,081 = 38.39% - Next card = 10 / 47 = 21.28% Think in pairs. The 47 unseen cards form 1,081 pairs, and only 666 avoid every out. Subtract and you land on 415 helpful pairs, a 38.39% chance. With 10 outs the rule of 4 stays near the truth: 40% estimated, 38.39% exact, 1.61 points apart. Above 8 outs the adjusted rule applies: 4 x 10 - 2 = 38%. Against 38.39%, it is off by 0.39 points. ## Which holding has 10 outs? Look at the board and your hand, count each card that helps once, and reach 10. No single named draw has this count by itself. Use the effective count, not the raw one, when a rival could be drawing too. Losing 3 outs to overlap moves 38.39% down to 27.84%. 10 outs on the flop when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance by the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 10 | 38.39% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 9 | 34.97% | 3.42 points | | 2 | 8 | 31.45% | 6.94 points | | 3 | 7 | 27.84% | 10.55 points | ## The bets 10 outs can call on the flop Compare the columns: required equity on the left, margin in the middle, verdict at the end. With 10 outs you can call 9 of the 12 bet sizes. 10 outs on the flop against every bet size, with your chance by the river at 38.39% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +21.72 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +18.39 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +16.17 points | Call | | [1/2 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +13.39 points | Call | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +9.82 points | Call | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +8.39 points | Call | | [full pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/10-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +5.06 points | Call | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | +2.68 points | Call | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | +0.89 points | Call | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -1.61 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -4.47 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -6.05 points | Fold | Past 165.34% of the pot, the price beats your 38.39%. On a $100 pot that line is $165.34. ## Nearby counts on both streets Not sure whether to count one more out? It changes the chance by about 3.33 points. The table shows both streets for the counts around 10. Counts near 10: the chance by the river on the flop and on the turn | Outs | Flop, by the river | Turn, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [8](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) | 31.45% | 17.39% | | [9](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md) | 34.97% | 19.57% | | 10 (this page) | 38.39% | 21.74% | | [11](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md) | 41.72% | 23.91% | | [12](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-flop.md) | 44.96% | 26.09% | - [10 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md): 21.74% on the river. - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md): 34.97% by the river. - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md): 41.72% by the river. ## When a bet buys only one card Facing a half-pot bet, compare 25.00% with 21.28% when you will pay again on the turn. A margin of -3.72 points says Fold, while the two-card view gave +13.39 points. Counting the next card alone, you can call 2 of the 12 bet sizes, compared with 9 of the 12 bet sizes when you see both cards. ## Questions ### How good is a draw with 10 outs on the flop? With 10 outs on the flop you hit by the river 38.39% of the time, about 38 of every 100 hands, and on the next card 21.28%. The odds against hitting by the river are 1.6 : 1, since 666 of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards hold no out. ### What is the error of the rule of 4 at 10 outs? The rule of 4 gives 40% for 10 outs against an exact 38.39%, an error of +1.61 points, so it runs a little high on the draw. The adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8) gives 38%, an error of -0.39 points, and is the closer figure. ### Are 10 outs on the flop enough to call a half-pot bet? At 38.39% by the river, you can call 9 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +13.39 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 165.34% of the pot, or $165.34 on a $100 pot. ### What is the effective count if some of the 10 outs are shared? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance by the river falls from 38.39% to 34.97%, and with 3 shared it falls to 27.84%, a loss of 10.55 points. The effective count is then 7 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit by the river from the flop is 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), where u = 47 unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 10 outs that is 1 - 666 / 1,081 = 38.39%. The chance on the next card is k / 47, here 21.28%. The rule of 4 figure is 4 x k, here 40%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here +1.61 points. The adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8) gives 38%, an error of -0.39 points. The count covers every card you cannot see. All 47 unseen cards stay in it, the call is paid in full, and the pot is $100 before the bet, so the verdicts are a plain price check. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [10 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md): The same count with one card to come. - [Pot odds for a 3x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/3x-pot.md): The equity a 3x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a half-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/half-pot.md): The equity a half-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)