--- title: "11 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "How often do 11 outs hit on the turn? 23.91% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 11 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit How often do 11 outs hit on the turn? 23.91% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call. Counting 11 outs on the turn puts your chance on the river at 23.91%. This page turns that figure into odds, tests the rule of 2 against it and lines it up with 12 bet sizes. - Chance to hit on the river: 23.91% (11 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 3.18 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 22% (-1.91 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 11 outs on the turn A 23.91% chance gives the draw real weight. You will miss 76.09% of the time, yet a bet of up to 45.83% of the pot still costs less than your chance. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 11 - Cards that miss: 35 - Chance on the river: 23.91% - Chance on the next card (the river): 23.91% - Odds against hitting: 3.18 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 22% - Error of the rule of 2: -1.91 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 11 outs: 11 / 46 = 23.91% One card is left to come out of 46 unseen. 11 of them are outs and 35 miss, so the chance is 11 divided by 46, which is 23.91%. The true chance is 23.91%, which beats the 22% that the rule of 2 reports by 1.91 points. Leave the adjusted rule for bigger flop draws. With 11 outs on the turn, the plain rule of 2 figure is 22%. ## Which holding has 11 outs? This count has no one textbook draw behind it. It is the total you get after adding up several draws and checking for overlap. A shared out has a price: 2.17 points for the first, and 6.52 points in all with 3 shared. Subtract any shared outs before you compare with a bet. 11 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 11 | 23.91% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 10 | 21.74% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 9 | 19.57% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 8 | 17.39% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 11 outs can call on the turn Bet sizes run from 1/4 pot to 4x pot. Against 23.91% on the river, 3 of the 12 bet sizes are calls. 11 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 23.91% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +7.25 points | Call | | 1/3 pot | 20.00% | +3.91 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +1.69 points | Call | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | -1.09 points | Fold | | 2/3 pot | 28.57% | -4.66 points | Fold | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/11-outs-turn-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -6.09 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -9.42 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -11.80 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -13.59 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -16.09 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -18.94 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -20.53 points | Fold | Past 45.83% of the pot, the price beats your 23.91%. On a $100 pot that line is $45.83. ## Nearby counts on both streets Not sure whether to count one more out? It changes the chance by about 2.17 points. The table shows both streets for the counts around 11. Counts near 11: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [9](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md) | 19.57% | 34.97% | | [10](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md) | 21.74% | 38.39% | | 11 (this page) | 23.91% | 41.72% | | [12](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-turn.md) | 26.09% | 44.96% | | [13](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/13-outs-turn.md) | 28.26% | 48.10% | - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md): 41.72% by the river. - [10 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md): 21.74% on the river. - [12 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-turn.md): 26.09% on the river. ## The river is the last card On the turn there is nothing left to separate: the river is the last card, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same 23.91%. ## Questions ### What is the chance to hit with 11 outs on the turn? With 11 outs on the turn you hit on the river 23.91% of the time, about 24 of every 100 hands, because 11 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 3.18 : 1. ### What is the error of the rule of 2 at 11 outs? The rule of 2 gives 22% for 11 outs against an exact 23.91%, an error of -1.91 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### Do 11 outs on the turn justify a call, and against which bets? At 23.91% on the river, you can call 3 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -1.09 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 45.83% of the pot, or $45.83 on a $100 pot. ### How many points do I lose if outs are shared with a better hand? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 23.91% to 21.74%, and with 3 shared it falls to 17.39%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 8 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 11 outs that is 11 / 46 = 23.91%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 22%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -1.91 points. The chance counts only the 46 cards you cannot see, each equally likely. It ignores what an opponent may hold and any money still to be won. Verdicts compare your chance with the bet over the pot plus two bets, on a $100 pot. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [11 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a 4x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/4x-pot.md): The equity a 4x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md): The equity a two-thirds-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)