--- title: "12 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "How often do 12 outs hit on the turn? 26.09% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 12 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit How often do 12 outs hit on the turn? 26.09% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call. Here is the full picture for 12 outs on the turn: a 26.09% chance on the river, the odds against, and a verdict for every bet size from 1/4 pot to 4x pot. - Chance to hit on the river: 26.09% (12 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 2.83 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 24% (-2.09 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 12 outs on the turn This is a respectable draw. Landing on the river 26.09% of the time, you can pay for a bet of up to 54.55% of the pot, and the third section shows the full table. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 12 - Cards that miss: 34 - Chance on the river: 26.09% - Chance on the next card (the river): 26.09% - Odds against hitting: 2.83 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 24% - Error of the rule of 2: -2.09 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 12 outs: 12 / 46 = 26.09% One card is left to come out of 46 unseen. 12 of them are outs and 34 miss, so the chance is 12 divided by 46, which is 26.09%. The rule of 2 says 24%, which is 2.09 points below the exact 26.09%. At this count the shortcut runs low, so the true draw is better than it suggests. Here the shortcut is simply 2 per out: 24% in total, with no adjustment at this count. ## Which holding has 12 outs? This count has a familiar home: a flush draw with a gutshot. It is worth knowing, because a quick look at the board often tells you the count. An out that also completes a better hand for a rival is a poor out. With one shared out among your 12 outs, the chance on the river falls from 26.09% to 23.91%, a loss of 2.17 points. 12 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 12 | 26.09% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 11 | 23.91% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 10 | 21.74% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 9 | 19.57% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 12 outs can call on the turn Each row compares your 26.09% chance with the equity a call needs. You can call 4 of the 12 bet sizes with 12 outs on the turn. 12 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 26.09% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +9.42 points | Call | | 1/3 pot | 20.00% | +6.09 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +3.86 points | Call | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | +1.09 points | Call | | 2/3 pot | 28.57% | -2.48 points | Fold | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | -3.91 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -7.25 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -9.63 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -11.41 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -13.91 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -16.77 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -18.36 points | Fold | Work the price backward from 26.09% and you find a limit of 54.55% of the pot: $54.55 into a $100 pot. ## Nearby counts on both streets A single out is worth about 2.17 points here. The table lists the counts around 12 on both streets so you can see how the other street compares. Counts near 12: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [10](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md) | 21.74% | 38.39% | | [11](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-turn.md) | 23.91% | 41.72% | | 12 (this page) | 26.09% | 44.96% | | [13](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/13-outs-turn.md) | 28.26% | 48.10% | | [14](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/14-outs-turn.md) | 30.43% | 51.16% | - [12 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-flop.md): 44.96% by the river. - [11 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-turn.md): 23.91% on the river. - [13 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/13-outs-turn.md): 28.26% on the river. ## The river is the last card With 12 outs and one card to come, a single number answers both questions: 26.09%. Against the 25.00% that a half-pot call needs, the margin is +1.09 points. ## Questions ### How should I read the hit chance for 12 outs on the turn? With 12 outs on the turn you hit on the river 26.09% of the time, about 26 of every 100 hands, because 12 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 2.83 : 1. ### What does the rule of 2 say for a count of 12? The rule of 2 gives 24% for 12 outs against an exact 26.09%, an error of -2.09 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### How many bet sizes can 12 outs on the turn pay for? At 26.09% on the river, you can call 4 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +1.09 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 54.55% of the pot, or $54.55 on a $100 pot. ### Should I count every out when a rival could be drawing too, with 12 outs? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 26.09% to 23.91%, and with 3 shared it falls to 19.57%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 9 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 12 outs that is 12 / 46 = 26.09%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 24%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -2.09 points. Assumptions: every unseen card is equally likely, and no card is removed for an opponent's hand, so this is the chance to hit your outs, not your equity against a named hand. A call is paid in full, so the pot after it holds the pot plus two bets. Here the pot is $100. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [12 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/12-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/quarter-pot.md): The equity a quarter-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a three-quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/three-quarter-pot.md): The equity a three-quarter-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)