--- title: "15 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "The turn chance for 15 outs is 32.61% on the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 15 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit The turn chance for 15 outs is 32.61% on the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for. You have a 32.61% chance to hit on the river with 15 outs on the turn. The sections below show the count behind that figure, the draws that match it and the bets it can call. - Chance to hit on the river: 32.61% (15 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 2.07 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 30% (-2.61 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 15 outs on the turn With 32.61% on the river, the draw fails 67.39% of the time and lands the rest. That is enough to call a bet of up to 93.75% of the pot. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 15 - Cards that miss: 31 - Chance on the river: 32.61% - Chance on the next card (the river): 32.61% - Odds against hitting: 2.07 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 30% - Error of the rule of 2: -2.61 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 15 outs: 15 / 46 = 32.61% The river is the last card, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same number. For 15 outs it is 15 / 46, or 32.61%. Being 2.61 points low, 30% still points the right way, but the exact 32.61% is the number to put against a bet. Leave the adjusted rule for bigger flop draws. With 15 outs on the turn, the plain rule of 2 figure is 30%. ## Which holding has 15 outs? Common holding with this count: a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw. This page tells you how often it gets there. The table removes shared outs one at a time. The first costs 2.17 points; with 3 shared you are at 26.09%, 6.52 points lower than the clean count. 15 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 15 | 32.61% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 14 | 30.43% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 13 | 28.26% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 12 | 26.09% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 15 outs can call on the turn Bet sizes run from 1/4 pot to 4x pot. Against 32.61% on the river, 6 of the 12 bet sizes are calls. 15 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 32.61% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +15.94 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +12.61 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +10.39 points | Call | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | +7.61 points | Call | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +4.04 points | Call | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | +2.61 points | Call | | [full pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/15-outs-turn-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -0.72 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -3.11 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -4.89 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -7.39 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -10.25 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -11.84 points | Fold | Your 32.61% stretches to a bet of 93.75% of the pot. Put in dollars, that is $93.75 when the pot holds $100. ## Nearby counts on both streets Use the rows below to see what the count next door looks like. A step of one out is about 2.17 points on the turn. Counts near 15: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [13](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/13-outs-turn.md) | 28.26% | 48.10% | | [14](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/14-outs-turn.md) | 30.43% | 51.16% | | 15 (this page) | 32.61% | 54.12% | | [16](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-turn.md) | 34.78% | 56.98% | | [17](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md) | 36.96% | 59.76% | - [15 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-flop.md): 54.12% by the river. - [14 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/14-outs-turn.md): 30.43% on the river. - [16 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-turn.md): 34.78% on the river. ## The river is the last card On the turn there is nothing left to separate: the river is the last card, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same 32.61%. ## Questions ### How should I read the hit chance for 15 outs on the turn? With 15 outs on the turn you hit on the river 32.61% of the time, about 33 of every 100 hands, because 15 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 2.07 : 1. ### Can I trust the shortcut for 15 outs on the turn? The rule of 2 gives 30% for 15 outs against an exact 32.61%, an error of -2.61 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### When should I call or fold with 15 outs on the turn? At 32.61% on the river, you can call 6 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +7.61 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 93.75% of the pot, or $93.75 on a $100 pot. ### Does every one of the 15 outs count in full on the turn? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 32.61% to 30.43%, and with 3 shared it falls to 26.09%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 12 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 15 outs that is 15 / 46 = 32.61%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 30%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -2.61 points. Seen as a pure card count, the 46 unseen cards are all equally likely and an opponent's hand removes none of them. Prices use a $100 pot and a call equal to the bet, so the equity needed is the bet over the pot plus two bets. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [15 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a half-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/half-pot.md): The equity a half-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a 1.5x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-5x-pot.md): The equity a 1.5x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)