--- title: "16 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "The turn chance for 16 outs is 34.78% on the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 16 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit The turn chance for 16 outs is 34.78% on the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for. 34.78% is the exact chance on the river when you count 16 outs on the turn. Read on for the odds against, the shortcut figure and a full table of bet sizes with a call or fold verdict. - Chance to hit on the river: 34.78% (16 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 1.88 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 32% (-2.78 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 16 outs on the turn This is a respectable draw. Landing on the river 34.78% of the time, you can pay for a bet of up to 114.29% of the pot, and the third section shows the full table. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 16 - Cards that miss: 30 - Chance on the river: 34.78% - Chance on the next card (the river): 34.78% - Odds against hitting: 1.88 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 32% - Error of the rule of 2: -2.78 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 16 outs: 16 / 46 = 34.78% Divide your outs by the unseen cards: 16 / 46 = 34.78%. The other 30 cards are blanks. You would sell this draw short by 2.78 points if you stopped at 32%. The exact count is 34.78%. The adjusted rule only applies from the flop above 8 outs, so 16 outs on the turn use the plain rule of 2: 2 x 16 = 32%. ## Which holding has 16 outs? No single common draw has exactly 16 outs. A count like this comes from combining draws and removing the cards that count twice. A shared out has a price: 2.17 points for the first, and 6.52 points in all with 3 shared. Subtract any shared outs before you compare with a bet. 16 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 16 | 34.78% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 15 | 32.61% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 14 | 30.43% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 13 | 28.26% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 16 outs can call on the turn Draw the line at 34.78%: any bet that needs less equity than that is a call. Here that covers 7 of the 12 bet sizes. 16 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 34.78% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +18.12 points | Call | | 1/3 pot | 20.00% | +14.78 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +12.56 points | Call | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | +9.78 points | Call | | 2/3 pot | 28.57% | +6.21 points | Call | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | +4.78 points | Call | | full pot | 33.33% | +1.45 points | Call | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -0.93 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -2.72 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -5.22 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -8.07 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -9.66 points | Fold | Stated as a share of the pot, the largest bet you can pay is 114.29%. On a $100 pot you can call up to $114.29. ## Nearby counts on both streets If your count is off by one, the chance moves by about 2.17 points. These rows show the counts near 16 on the flop and the turn. Counts near 16: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [14](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/14-outs-turn.md) | 30.43% | 51.16% | | [15](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md) | 32.61% | 54.12% | | 16 (this page) | 34.78% | 56.98% | | [17](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md) | 36.96% | 59.76% | | [18](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-turn.md) | 39.13% | 62.44% | - [16 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md): 56.98% by the river. - [15 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md): 32.61% on the river. - [17 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md): 36.96% on the river. ## The river is the last card The turn call buys the last card. 34.78% is the chance, 25.00% is the price of a half-pot bet, and the margin of +9.78 points gives Call. ## Questions ### What is the chance to hit with 16 outs on the turn? With 16 outs on the turn you hit on the river 34.78% of the time, about 35 of every 100 hands, because 16 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 1.88 : 1. ### What is the error of the rule of 2 at 16 outs? The rule of 2 gives 32% for 16 outs against an exact 34.78%, an error of -2.78 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### What price can a draw with 16 outs on the turn afford? At 34.78% on the river, you can call 7 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +9.78 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 114.29% of the pot, or $114.29 on a $100 pot. ### How do I adjust a count of 16 for outs that help an opponent? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 34.78% to 32.61%, and with 3 shared it falls to 28.26%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 13 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 16 outs that is 16 / 46 = 34.78%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 32%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -2.78 points. Two assumptions sit behind the page. First, all 46 unseen cards are equally likely, with no cards taken out for an opponent. Second, each bet is called in full on a $100 pot, so you pay one bet to play for a pot that holds the pot and both bets. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [16 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md): The equity a two-thirds-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a 2x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/2x-pot.md): The equity a 2x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)