--- title: "17 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-flop.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-flop" last_updated: "2026-10-22" type: "reference" summary: "17 outs, flop: you hit by the river 59.76% of the time, 0.67 : 1 against, with the rule of 4 checked and every bet size priced." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 17 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit 17 outs, flop: you hit by the river 59.76% of the time, 0.67 : 1 against, with the rule of 4 checked and every bet size priced. Holding 17 outs once the flop is dealt gives you a 59.76% chance by the river. Below you will find what that means as odds, how far the quick rule drifts and which bet sizes you can call. - Chance to hit by the river: 59.76% (17 outs, two cards to come) - Chance on the next card: 36.17% - Odds against by the river: 0.67 : 1 - Rule of 4 estimate: 68% (+8.24 points from the exact chance) ## The count behind 17 outs on the flop This is a very large draw. You miss 40.24% of the time, and most bet sizes in the table below are calls. - Unseen cards: 47 - Your outs: 17 - Cards that miss: 30 - Pairs of cards with no out: 435 - Pairs with at least one out: 646 - Chance by the river: 59.76% - Chance on the next card: 36.17% - Odds against hitting: 0.67 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 4: 68% - Error of the rule of 4: +8.24 points - Adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8): 59% - Error of the adjusted rule: -0.76 points - Chance by the river = 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), with u = 47 unseen cards - For 17 outs: 1 - C(30, 2) / C(47, 2) = 1 - 435 / 1,081 = 59.76% - Next card = 17 / 47 = 36.17% Start with the cards you have not seen: 47 of them. 30 of those miss and 17 are outs. Two cards come, so there are 1,081 possible pairs, and 435 of them hold no out at all. A 68% estimate against a true 59.76% is an overstatement of 8.24 points, more than the 2 points that make a shortcut safe to use unchecked. Above 8 outs the adjusted rule applies: 4 x 17 - 9 = 59%. Against 59.76%, it is off by 0.76 points. ## Which holding has 17 outs? A count of 17 is a combination, not a textbook draw. Add up the helpful cards from each part of your hand and take away any that repeat. Count carefully: a card that gives you the draw and gives an opponent a better hand should come off the list. One shared out takes the chance down by 2.78 points, to 56.98%. 17 outs on the flop when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance by the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 17 | 59.76% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 16 | 56.98% | 2.78 points | | 2 | 15 | 54.12% | 5.64 points | | 3 | 14 | 51.16% | 8.60 points | ## The bets 17 outs can call on the flop Bet sizes run from 1/4 pot to 4x pot. Against 59.76% by the river, all 12 bet sizes are calls. 17 outs on the flop against every bet size, with your chance by the river at 59.76% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +43.09 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +39.76 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +37.54 points | Call | | [1/2 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +34.76 points | Call | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +31.19 points | Call | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +29.76 points | Call | | [full pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +26.43 points | Call | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | +24.05 points | Call | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | +22.26 points | Call | | 2x pot | 40.00% | +19.76 points | Call | | 3x pot | 42.86% | +16.90 points | Call | | 4x pot | 44.44% | +15.32 points | Call | There is no limit to find here. Holding 59.76%, you can call a bet of any size, from 1/4 pot up and beyond 4x pot. ## Nearby counts on both streets Use the rows below to see what the count next door looks like. A step of one out is about 2.68 points on the flop. Counts near 17: the chance by the river on the flop and on the turn | Outs | Flop, by the river | Turn, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [15](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-flop.md) | 54.12% | 32.61% | | [16](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md) | 56.98% | 34.78% | | 17 (this page) | 59.76% | 36.96% | | [18](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md) | 62.44% | 39.13% | | [19](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-flop.md) | 65.03% | 41.30% | - [17 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md): 36.96% on the river. - [16 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-flop.md): 56.98% by the river. - [18 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md): 62.44% by the river. ## When a bet buys only one card Two views, one draw: 59.76% if you see both cards and 36.17% if you see one. Against 25.00%, the one-card view has a margin of +11.17 points and reads Call. On one card, 17 outs clear 8 of the 12 bet sizes. On two cards they clear all 12 bet sizes. ## Questions ### Out of 100 hands, how many hit with 17 outs on the flop? With 17 outs on the flop you hit by the river 59.76% of the time, about 60 of every 100 hands, and on the next card 36.17%. The odds against hitting by the river are 0.67 : 1, since 435 of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards hold no out. ### What is the error of the rule of 4 at 17 outs? The rule of 4 gives 68% for 17 outs against an exact 59.76%, an error of +8.24 points, so it overstates the draw. The adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8) gives 59%, an error of -0.76 points, and is the closer figure. ### Do 17 outs on the flop justify a call, and against which bets? At 59.76% by the river, you can call all 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +34.76 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. Any bet size is a call, because 59.76% is above one half. ### How do I adjust a count of 17 for outs that help an opponent? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance by the river falls from 59.76% to 56.98%, and with 3 shared it falls to 51.16%, a loss of 8.60 points. The effective count is then 14 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit by the river from the flop is 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), where u = 47 unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 17 outs that is 1 - 435 / 1,081 = 59.76%. The chance on the next card is k / 47, here 36.17%. The rule of 4 figure is 4 x k, here 68%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here +8.24 points. The adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8) gives 59%, an error of -0.76 points. The count covers every card you cannot see. All 47 unseen cards stay in it, the call is paid in full, and the pot is $100 before the bet, so the verdicts are a plain price check. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [17 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md): The same count with one card to come. - [Pot odds for a three-quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/three-quarter-pot.md): The equity a three-quarter-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a 3x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/3x-pot.md): The equity a 3x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)